Trade with Conviction

This episode focused on how the escalating conflict is moving beyond headline risk and into a full physical market disruption, with tanker attacks, port damage, refinery outages and force majeure declarations reshaping crude and product flows across the Middle East and Asia. The team unpacked why government intervention, including SPR releases and possible demand controls, is only a partial fix, and why the deepest stress is showing up in products rather than crude, especially diesel, jet, gasoline, naphtha and LPG. They also explored the growing strain on Asian refiners and petrochemical players, the knock on effects for freight and arbitrage economics, and why market paralysis and political intervention are making this one of the hardest environments to price and trade.

📚 Chapters

(00:40) Headlines, tanker attacks and the SPR response
The team opens with the latest escalation in tanker attacks, infrastructure damage and US efforts to contain oil prices, before breaking down why the SPR release may help at the margin but still falls short of plugging the supply gap.

(10:14) Petrochemicals and force majeures across Asia
Jorge explains how disrupted Middle East crude, LPG and feedstock flows are hitting petrochemical producers in Korea, Japan, India and Southeast Asia, triggering force majeure announcements and forcing run cuts.

(12:08) Distillates take the biggest hit
James lays out why diesel and jet remain the most stressed products in the barrel, with historic pricing moves, broken East West economics and few obvious solutions for short markets in both Asia and the Atlantic Basin.

(16:41) Gasoline, naphtha and LPG reprice fast
The discussion shifts to light ends, where East West gasoline and naphtha spreads continue to surge, arbitrage routes are being redrawn, and India’s LPG exposure adds another layer of inflation and demand risk.

(21:05) Freight dislocation and the strange crude market
The team looks at how tankers are repositioning away from risk, why freight is distorting crude economics, and why physical differentials in the West are not yet reacting as aggressively as the broader market might suggest.

(28:12) Fuel oil pressure and tactical trade ideas
The episode closes with a look at fuel oil’s role in the wider shortage, how VLSFO is beginning to compete for distillate molecules, and where the team sees the most interesting, if highly tactical, trading opportunities.

This emergency episode unpacks the market fallout from the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and why the real issue is no longer just crude, but the knock on impact across products, refinery runs and freight. The team looks at why SPR releases are unlikely to solve a disruption of this scale, how Asia is absorbing the biggest immediate hit, why gasoline, jet and distillates are becoming the real pressure points, and how freight markets are reacting as trade flows are forced to reroute. Across the discussion, the central takeaway is clear: until the strait reopens, every other market move is really just a consequence of that one bottleneck.

📚 Chapters

(00:50) Hormuz remains shut and the disruption spreads
Felipe opens with the weekend’s key developments, from Iran’s political signalling to fresh force majeures across Asia, and why the closure of the strait still overwhelms every other market headline.

(05:00) Why SPR releases are not a real solution
The team breaks down the limits of strategic reserve releases, where the barrels are, how fast they can actually be drawn, and why this is only a temporary buffer rather than a fix.

(09:42) Freight starts repricing the crisis
Michael explains the sharp moves in tanker forward curves, the impact of SPR expectations on Atlantic basin freight, and why owners are increasingly being pulled toward the strongest loading regions.

(20:44) Crude dislocations, Brent structure and the Yanbu escape valve
Neil looks at why some physical crude markets are reacting hard while others remain strangely quiet, what that says about refinery behaviour, and how much Yanbu can realistically help.

(25:41) Distillates and jet: where the real squeeze begins
James and the team dig into diesel and jet pricing, the shifting east-west economics, and why East Asia and Europe could both end up in a tougher spot than the crude market alone suggests.

(31:50) Gasoline and naphtha: open arbitrage, weak confidence
The conversation turns to gasoline and naphtha, where paper signals say barrels should move east, but real world execution, demand uncertainty and refinery behaviour make the trade far messier.

In this emergency episode, the team unpacks the fast moving market impact of the Iran conflict, focusing on how disruptions are showing up first through shipping and insurance, then cascading into crude and refined products.

Chapters

(00:50) Emergency episode: What happened, what matters, what to watch
A rapid briefing on the Iran conflict, early market signals, and the key variables for traders.

(02:05) Hormuz, insurance, and the market’s day by day repricing
Why shipping slowed, how war risk insurance became a gating factor, and what changed into Tuesday.

(07:11) Freight market shock: paralysis in the AG and repositioning west
What’s tradable versus theoretical in rates, and why long haul western flows suddenly make sense.

(12:04) Price action under the surface: spreads, diffs, and product stress
How inter regional and inter product pricing is responding, including crude quality impacts and cracks.

(16:17) Jet and diesel take the lead: run cuts, regrades, and the Asia squeeze
Why refiners cut runs early, why jet is structurally exposed, and how flows and arbs are flipping.

(23:14) Scenarios and tail risks: supply chain damage vs sudden relief
A framework for what comes next, and why even de escalation doesn’t instantly normalize balances.

In this special episode, the team reacts to the sudden escalation in the Middle East following attacks involving Iran, Israel and the US, focusing on the immediate market impact rather than long term forecasts. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz effectively halted, the discussion centres on whether the market is facing a logistical bottleneck or a genuine supply shock, and how that distinction is driving sharp moves in freight, crude differentials and product cracks. The group breaks down cross commodity reactions across crude, distillates, gasoline, naphtha and fuel oil, assesses the limits of the so called “oil glut” narrative, and outlines the critical signals traders should monitor over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Chapters: 

Segment 1: What happened and what to watch next

(01:19) Strait of Hormuz: Shipping disruption and logistical shock

An overview of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, vessels piling up, and why this is initially a logistics crisis rather than an outright supply loss.

(02:55) Tanker attacks, war risk insurance, and freight spike

Discussion of reported tanker attacks, suspended war risk cover, surging AG freight rates, and the implications for global ton miles.

Segment 2: Oil market impacts and pricing signals

(06:10) Crude reaction: Dubai, Brent premiums, and arb dislocations

How Brent Dubai EFS, Dubai premiums and global crude arbs are reacting, and why traditional arbitrage signals may not function in the near term.

(06:55) Distillates and jet: East West spreads and regrade strength

Why jet and diesel cracks are rallying, the significance of AG supply risk, and what strong regrades signal about refinery behaviour.

(08:06) Gasoline and naphtha: East West blowout and Cape flows

The sharp move in gasoline and naphtha East West spreads, backwardation constraints, and the growing importance of Cape of Good Hope routing.

(09:06) Fuel oil and sour crude risk

High sulphur fuel oil strength, sour crude exposure, and the impact of rewired crude flows on product balances.

(11:38) Why are cracks going up relative to crude?

(14:10) Explaining strong jet regrades

(15:16) What is crude worth right now?

(18:34) What traders should monitor in the next 24–48 hours

Key signals to watch: escalation of infrastructure attacks, the reopening or sustained closure of Hormuz, refinery run responses, crude procurement shifts, and why the “oil glut” may be irrelevant in this context.

In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, the team unpacks a market caught between geopolitics and structural freight disruption. From high-stakes Iran negotiations and US tariff shocks to VLCC rates tripling in two months, we break down how crude flows, refining margins, and arbitrage economics are being reshaped in real time.

(01:01) Geopolitics: Iran, Tariffs and OPEC

The team breaks down the Iran negotiations, US tariff upheaval, China and India leverage, and what OPEC’s next move could mean for flat price direction.

(08:05) Distillates: Extreme Strength and Europe’s Ceiling

Diesel and jet cracks sit at seasonal highs, East-West spreads stretch wide, and arbitrage flows increasingly point barrels into Europe.

(15:27) Crude, Resid and Margins: Freight Shock Hits Refiners

VLCC rates surge 200% year to date, crude premiums begin to cool, and refiners reassess margins as higher freight costs ripple through buying decisions.

(22:28) Arbitrage Watch: West Weakens, East Adjusts

North Sea and WAF premiums soften, CPC becomes the arb anchor, and AG grades face pressure unless geopolitical risk escalates.

(26:15) Quick Fire Round: Gasoline, Fuel Oil and East-West

Asian gasoline shows recovery into turnaround season, Singapore 380 weakens under heavier supply, and East-West spreads test structural limits.