Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

1) The International Energy Agency is proposing a release of emergency oil reserves, according to a person with knowledge of the matter, as governments seek to contain a spike in energy prices driven by the Middle East war. It was not immediately clear whether the IEA proposal was formal and included specific amounts for member nations. While countries have so far agreed in principle to inject more oil into the market if needed, it is not evident that all believe that the situation is yet urgent enough to make that move. The person, who asked not to be named because discussions are not public, did not provide a figure. The Group of Seven nations said on Wednesday that they supported, in principle, “proactive measures” including the release of strategic reserves, though they did not provide details on the scale of a potential intervention.

2) Energy markets whipsawed for a second consecutive day as investors raced to interpret rapidly shifting comments from the Trump administration over the war in Iran. Oil prices plummeted after Energy Secretary Chris Wright erroneously posted — and then deleted — a message that the US Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt subsequently conceded no such operation had occurred, while adding the US military was “drawing up additional options” to address any attempt by Iran to constrain trade through the vital artery. Later Tuesday, President Trump posted his own flurry of messages on social media. First, he insisted the US had “no reports” of mines being placed, but then urged Iranian forces to remove any explosives they may have laid.

3) Oracle Corp. shares gained in extended trading after the company posted strong results and gave an outlook that suggested there is little letup in demand for AI computing. Revenue in Oracle’s closely watched infrastructure business increased 84% to $4.9 billion in the period ended Feb. 28, the company said Tuesday in a statement. That marked a faster jump than the 79% anticipated by analysts and a 68% sales rise in the previous quarter. The company is working to deliver on massive cloud infrastructure contracts with customers like OpenAI and Meta Platforms Inc. Known for its namesake database software, Oracle has found success with its cloud business by providing chip-filled data centers and other equipment for training and deploying AI models.
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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) President Trump on Monday said the US and Israel were making significant progress in their war on Iran and could end the conflict “very soon,” curtailing an oil-price surge. Trump said he didn’t believe the fighting would be over this week, but insisted the operation was ahead of schedule. The US Navy will escort tankers out of the Middle East to maintain a steady oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, he added. The effective closure of the strait, vital to the world’s flow of petroleum and to container shipping, has caused oil and natural gas prices to soar, and stoked fears of inflation. Brent crude, having climbed to almost $120 a barrel early Monday, is back down to $91.50, but is still up more than 50% this year on the US-Iran tensions. There’s as yet little sign Hormuz can be opened quickly, with Iran continuing to retaliate with drone and missile strikes across the region.
2) Stocks rose and crude oil fell as President Trump signaled the Iran war may be nearing an end, helping boost sentiment after Monday’s selloff in risk assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 3.1%, with technology shares leading gains. European stocks were also set to advance with contracts indicating a 1.4% jump at the open. However, equity-index futures for the S&P 500 Index slipped 0.2%, indicating the recovery that started on Wall Street on Monday may be running out of steam. The rebound in sentiment for markets came as Trump said the war with Iran would be resolved “very soon.” Even so, from the UAE to Bahrain to Kuwait, several Middle Eastern countries announced missile threats, sounded sirens or intercepted drones on Tuesday. Trump said he didn’t believe the conflict would be over this week.
3) Kevin Warsh will meet with senators this week as he seeks their approval to become chairman of the Federal Reserve, according to three people familiar with the plans. The customary meetings with senators before his expected hearing mark the next stage in Warsh’s quest to replace Jerome Powell as the head of the national monetary system. One of the senators on Warsh’s schedule is Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), according to two of the people. Tillis has said he likes Warsh as a potential chairman but opposes moving the nomination until the Justice Department halts its investigation of into the Federal Reserve’s $2.5 billion renovation of its headquarters. Tillis has warned the probe amounts to inappropriate pressure on Powell to lower interest rates. Trump formally nominated Warsh last week in hopes of replacing Powell before the incumbent’s term expires May 15. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said he expects Warsh to get a hearing, notwithstanding Tillis’s blockade.
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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) Iran named the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as its new supreme leader and President Trump called $100 oil a “small price to pay,” with neither side showing any sign of deescalating a war now entering its 10th day. Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, won a “decisive vote” in Iran’s Assembly of Experts, the semi-official Fars news agency reported Sunday. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, one of Iran’s most powerful and feared organizations, pledged full obedience to the new leader in a statement. Trump, meanwhile, said the US and Israeli military campaign against the Islamic Republic was worth any near-term pain because it would bring long-lasting benefits.
2) Equities tumbled as deepening turmoil in energy markets sent oil above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022. Bond losses accelerated while the dollar hit the highes level in nearly two months. Futures for the S&P 500 fell 1.5% as the opposing sides in the US-Israeli war against Iran showed little sign of backing down after more than a week of conflict. Brent soared 15% after Middle Eastern producers cut output, stoking fears of an inflation shock that pushed the 10-year Treasury yield five basis points higher to 4.19%. Selling swept across regions and asset classes as the geopolitical flareup added fresh stress to markets that are already under pressure from AI disruptions and worries about the potential for cracks in credit markets.
3) Authorities are investigating potential terrorism links to two suspects in custody over what New York City Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch said was an improvised explosive thrown near Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s residence, people familiar with the investigation said. While Tisch did not elaborate on the investigation, people familiar with the investigation said the suspects — identified as Emir Balat and Ibrahim Kayumi by the commissioner — told detectives they believed the leader of an anti-Muslim protest near Mamdani’s residence had insulted their religion and described the devices as retaliation. Investigators also found the men had watched Islamic State propaganda videos before the protests, the people said. Authorities on Saturday arrested a total of six people connected to the broader unrest stemming from the anti-Muslim demonstration outside the residence near East End Avenue and East 87th Street starting at about 11 a.m. local time. Mamdani is the city’s first Muslim mayor.
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Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.
In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI data, along with a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead.
In the UK – a look ahead to Paris nuclear talks.
In Asia – a look ahead to legislative elections in Vietnam.
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US employers unexpectedly cut jobs in February and the unemployment rate rose, raising doubts about the health of the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls decreased 92,000 last month after a strong start to the year, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Friday. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%. The decline in payrolls partly reflected a decrease in health care employment due to strike activity.
Bloomberg Surveillance broke the numbers and got instant reaction from:
Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors
Nadia Lovell, Head of Global Equity Strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management
Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets
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