Manifold

Steve and Alf discuss the Iran War, emphasizing what it
reveals about modern missile and anti-missile technology, drones, and
the implications for a US-China conflict in the Western Pacific.
Links:
https://seekingtruthfromfacts.substack.com/
Chapter Markers:

(00:00) - Missile War Reality Check

(01:49) - How the War Started

(04:46) - Iran Outperforms Expectations

(06:22) - Why Missile Defense Fails

(14:25) - Ceasefire and Hormuz Brinkmanship

(19:52) - Nukes and the JCPOA Fallout

(33:44) - US Politics and Israel Lobby Aftershocks

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Richard Ngo is an independent AI researcher and philosopher known for
his work on AGI safety and alignment. He recently resigned from
OpenAI, where he was a member of the Governance team focused on
forecasting the capabilities and risks of advanced AI systems. His
debut fiction collection is titled "The Gentle Romance: Stories of AI
and Humanity", published in December 2025. The book features 22
science fiction stories that explore the psychological and
sociological impacts of advanced artificial intelligence.

On X: @RichardMCNgo

(00:00) - Richard Ngo Origins

(03:48) - DeepMind vs LLMs

(09:24) - OpenAI Futurist and AGI Risk

(39:17) - Machine God Tail Risk

(45:20) - Weird Futures and Normies

(51:28) - Alignment Research and Academia

(01:16:25) - Doomers vs Skeptics

(01:23:57) - Labs Governance Futures

(01:39:37) - Doom Scenarios Society

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Matt Southey is an editor for an AI safety organization. He wrote his PhD dissertation on the philosophy of Nick Land. Matt's "A Brief History of Accelerationism" can be found here, and he recommends the second chapter of Crypto-Current as a good introduction to Land's usage of Kant. He and Steve discuss Accelerationism, AI, and Steve's recent meeting with Land in Shanghai.

Chapter Markers:

(00:00) - Introduction

(02:07) - China Trip: Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai

(03:16) - Tsinghua University: Talent

(09:02) - Robotics and AI research

(24:01) - Shanghai and Nick Land

(35:46) - Land’s Esotericism

(37:19) - Accelerationism and Orthogonality

(43:01) - Simulation Metaphysics and Physics

(54:36) - Dark Enlightenment and Inevitable Complexity

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Recorded live in Shenzhen with Taylor Ogan, the founder and CEO of
Snowbull Capital, which invests in Chinese technology companies.
Taylor on X:
https://x.com/TaylorOgan
Previous episodes with Taylor:
https://youtu.be/iehHON07UHI?si=h2c3po5AX9Z9ANaK 
https://youtu.be/fmjR3me5s_Q?si=sPsMFOdKebEOZXQr

(00:00) - Shenzhen is the Technology Capital of the World, with Taylor Ogan

(00:53) - Meeting in Shenzhen

(02:40) - Greater Bay Area Explained

(06:36) - Shenzhen Boom Stories

(18:26) - China Tech Reality Check

(36:49) - China Tech Leapfrogging

(37:52) - Agentic AI on Phones

(41:27) - Jobs Wealth and Governance

(53:03) - Huawei Ownership and US Pushback

–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

This is the second episode of our series based on interviews for the documentary film, Dreamers and Doomers, about the SF Bay Area in the last days before AGI. 

Steve interviews Jesse Hoogland, co-founder and executive director of Timaeus, an AI safety research org working on applications of Singular Learning Theory (SLT) for AI safety. SLT establishes a connection between the geometry of the loss landscape and internal structure in models. This connection is used to develop scalable, rigorous tools for evaluating, interpreting, and aligning neural networks. Jesse is one of the leading young minds in the new generation of AI safety researchers.
https://www.jessehoogland.com/

(00:00) - Jesse interview at FAR Labs, Berkeley

(00:54) - Introduction

(01:50) - From Physics to AI Safety

(08:36) - AI Is Dangerous

(26:08) - Funding, P(Doom), and Futures

(56:21) - Trauma and Safety Vibes

(01:00:39) - Asymptotic Guarantees Debate

(01:03:54) - Mapping the Safety Tribes

(01:26:09) - Timelines, AI Pause, and Failure Modes

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.