The world of finance has a huge impact on all of us. This show aims to explore and unravel some of the mysteries surrounding the investing business, via intervi...
161: Who is Scott Bessent? Meet Trump's Incoming Treasury Secretary
Today’s guest is the new US Treasury Secretary, serving under Donald Trump. The role gives him immense responsibility for managing US obligations and finances, including circa. $7 trillion of annual US federal spending, the $35+ trillion fiscal debt pile and continued inflationary pressures on both US businesses and consumers.
Prior to this, Scott was a globally respected and market-moving hedge fund investor. He was key player on the George Soros's team, who in 1992 helped the Quantum Fund make $1bn, shorting sterling ahead of the UK’s withdrawal from the ERM.
Then, as Soros’s CIO, he was also dubbed ‘The Man Who Broke the Bank of Japan’ by the Wall Street Journal, making approximately $3.5bn on the Abenomics trade from 2012-2015!
Scott is widely acknowledged to be one of the world’s most highly respected macro hedge fund managers, and is the Founder of Key Square Capital Management. He has also taught financial history at Yale and is a prominent philanthropist.
In this episode, Scott explains the key ingredients in being a macro manager. He charts his journey, working with legendary investors such as Stan Druckenmiller and George Soros.
He opines on a range of key investment themes, including his thoughts on de-dollarisation, debt, commodities, the Ukraine rebuild, and AI. He also shares his analysis of the fast-evolving markets in both China and Japan.
Scott goes on to discuss risk, when and how he sizes positions, signposts that influence conviction, and dealing with information overload. A tour de force!
Interview originally recorded in September 2023.
The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors, World Gold Council and LSEG.
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160: Managing the Largest Public Pension Fund in the U.S. - With CalPERS CEO, Marcie Frost
In 1932, the United States was in the grip of the Great Depression. One in four Americans were unemployed, nearly 9,000 banks had failed.
Franklin Roosevelt was elected to the first of his four terms as President of the United States, and a retirement system for state employees was established in California. It became the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS). Today it’s America’s largest public pension fund, managing over $500bn (as of July 2024).
In this conversation, Marcie explains her journey to the helm of the organisation that is CalPERS today, and its over 2 million beneficiaries.
She discusses unfunded liabilities, and the balance between strategic and tactical allocation. She continues in reviewing their approach to active v passive in equity and fixed income. She discusses allocations to private equity and private debt, to hedge funds and real estate, and why their allocations to infrastructure are likely to increase.
She reflects on the intense scrutiny of being a highly visible public entity, and how divestment is not their first response in industries like energy, even though sustainability is a key priority.
She concludes with thoughts on culture, leadership, CalPERS being more nimble, and some great advice for females in finance.
The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors, World Gold Council and LSEG.
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159: Should Your Investment Portfolio Have the Right to Bear Arms? With General Sir Patrick Sanders
The episode brings Sir Patrick Sanders, a British military officer, back to discuss geopolitical issues, specifically focusing on the precarious state of global affairs today compared to the 1930s.
The conversation delves into the complexities surrounding Donald Trump's foreign policy perceptions and Norway SWF's approach to defence sector exclusions.
This episode was recorded in Norway at the Grieg Conference, organized by Grieg Investor. They’re an independent investment adviser for institutional investors in Norway representing over 170 clients, and part of the Grieg Group.
Sir Patrick elaborates on Trump's stance towards Russia, emphasizing Trump's unpredictable yet impactful actions, such as his claim of ending the Ukrainian war swiftly—a stance deemed as 'magical realism.' Furthermore, the dialogue explores Trump's potential impact on Middle Eastern politics, highlighting challenges like balancing Israeli interests and Iran's geopolitical maneuvers without igniting broader conflicts.
As the conversation transitions, China's influence and the West's strategy against a backdrop of escalating global competition are scrutinized, touching upon key ideologies in play. The podcast episode draws attention to urgent strategic choices required by Western nations, navigating the significant challenges posed by the geopolitical landscape amidst technological advances.
Insights on investment implications arising from these geopolitical tensions, such as defense and AI sectors, are also discussed by Sir Patrick and Simon.
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158: AI Unleashed: Scott Guthrie of Microsoft, on Transforming Productivity, Finance, Energy, and Regulation
Technological revolutions are by their nature rare events: the printing press, mobile telephony and the internet.
The associated excitement can capture the imagination, spur a raft of associated breakthroughs, encourage investors to dream of extraordinary returns, yet their byproduct is often to create excessive short-term exuberance, and expectations that might be correct in time, but invariably expect too much, too soon.
Scott Guthrie understands this space better than most, being a Microsoft lifer who has been at the epicentre of their success in Cloud and now AI, overseeing the development of both the Azure and Copilot products.
Alongside Simon, the discussion is co-hosted by Rob Rooney. Rob is the former CEO of Morgan Stanley International and was their Global Head of Technology and Operations. He now runs two fintech firms: HyperJar and Hyperlayer.
Scott begins by explaining why investors & business alike should look beyond the typical 1-2 year timelines used in common AI narratives, and instead examine the potential 5-10 year outlook for the technology.
He then shares some practical examples of how AI may cut costs & boost productivity for finance firms, why they’ve partnered with LSEG, and their reasons for building a staggering 500 new data centres globally!
In the wide ranging interview recorded at the LSEG Tech Leaders Summit ,he covers the central questions surrounding AI: Is it really a new game changer? How will it play out? Will regulation stifle or stimulate progress? How does it recalibrate productivity? Do we even have the electricity to support it? And how is AI being integrated into the burgeoning cloud industry?
The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored bySchroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. We’re pleased to now announce our fourth sponsor: LSEG!
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157: Gloves Off: Anthony Scaramucci on Trump, Harris, Bitcoin and the US Deficit
Four years ago we had the chance to record a US election special ahead of the vote to determine whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump became President. We welcomed Anthony Scaramucci; Harvard Law, Goldman Sachs, political fundraiser and, for 11 dramatic days, Donald Trump‘s Director of Communications.
Since then he has developed his finance business, run the SALT conferences, been a crypto evangelist and in addition - possibly inspired by his experience on the Money Maze Podcast - has become the co-host of the Rest is Politics US with Katy Kay (a high quality show which we recommend).
In this conversation he discusses Trump, including some candid thoughts on his character and what may lie ahead if he wins.
He then assesses the question of immigration, and if this election “will decide whether we continue to lead on freedom, economic innovation and multilateralism”.
He assesses why crypto should rise tenfold, how the debt challenge could be addressed, how he has managed setbacks and what resilience means to him, all with a ton of energy!
The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council.
The world of finance has a huge impact on all of us. This show aims to explore and unravel some of the mysteries surrounding the investing business, via interviews with masters of the real life money maze.
Expect tips for mastering capital allocation, making better business decisions, strategies for taking your career to the next level, and revelatory profiles of leading industry figures.
Whether you're a current or aspiring investment professional, a regular investor, or a student exploring career options, we hope you gain some helpful insights and enjoy the shows. Thank you for listening!
Visit our website to learn more & access further content: moneymazepodcast.com (https://www.moneymazepodcast.com/)