The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

Today’s guest is Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management, author of A Wealth of Common Sense and host of the Animal Spirits podcast.

In today’s episode, Ben unpacks the counterintuitive math behind long term investing. He reveals that picking the wrong asset every year still makes money, that the average up year tops 20%, and that stocks grow less volatile than bonds the longer you hold. To close, Ben explains why patience has never been harder.

(0:00) Starts

(2:05) Ben Carlson on the secret to investing

(5:00) The worst investor ever

(15:20) Tax management as new alpha

(17:12) Inflation’s impact on asset classes

(21:06) "Now do Japan"

(33:02) Lessons from bear markets

(41:54) Discretionary investing challenges

(46:31) Poor performance of hyperactive traders

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Sponsor: ⁠⁠Ivy Invest⁠ ⁠- To learn more about Ivy Invest's SEC-registered endowment-style fund, view the prospectus, and learn how to invest, visit⁠ ⁠ivyinvest.co/fund

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Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube

For detailed show notes, click here

To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com

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Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok

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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com

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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. 

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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! 

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In today's episode, Meb celebrates the release of his new book, Investing in America, a coffee table history of the 250 year bull market. He explains the magic of compounding, why every decade feels like chaos, and the surprising fact that stocks become less volatile than bonds over long horizons. To close, Meb weighs today's valuations against the long view.

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Follow Meb on⁠ X⁠,⁠ LinkedIn⁠ and⁠ YouTube⁠

For detailed show notes, click ⁠here⁠

To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our ⁠mailing list⁠ or visit us at⁠ cambriainvestments.com⁠

-----

Follow The Idea Farm: ⁠X⁠ | ⁠LinkedIn⁠ | ⁠Instagram⁠ | ⁠TikTok⁠

-----

Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com

-----

Past guests include ⁠Ed Thorp⁠, ⁠Richard Thaler⁠, ⁠Jeremy Grantham⁠, ⁠Joel Greenblatt⁠, ⁠Campbell Harvey⁠, ⁠Ivy Zelman⁠, ⁠Kathryn Kaminski⁠, ⁠Jason Calacanis⁠, ⁠Whitney Baker,⁠ ⁠Aswath Damodaran⁠, ⁠Howard Marks⁠, ⁠Tom Barton⁠, and many more. 

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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out ⁠here⁠! 

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠).
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today’s guest is Bryan Taylor, founder and chief economist of Finaeon, which has the most comprehensive database of historical financial market data in the world. He's just published Five Financial Eras: How Financial Markets Transformed the World.

In today’s episode, Bryan explains his TWIG framework of trade, war, inflation, and government, and how their combination drives returns across centuries of market history. He challenges the belief in a fixed equity risk premium and revisits seven decades of negative real bond returns. To close, Bryan explains why the post-1981 playbook no longer applies.

(0:00) Starts

(1:25) Sponsor: Ivy Invest

(2:37) Bryan Taylor explains the TWIG framework

(10:20) There is no single equity risk premium

(21:18) Government debt, market capitalization, and global market position

(26:17) The impact of technology revolutions on markets

(28:30) Historical changes in investment trends

(38:22) Cultural shifts in investing

(47:36) Evolution of stock market indices and future projects

(52:03) Currency discussion

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Sponsor: ⁠⁠Ivy Invest⁠ ⁠- To learn more about Ivy Invest's SEC-registered endowment-style fund, view the prospectus, and learn how to invest, visit⁠ ⁠ivyinvest.co/fund⁠

-----

Follow Meb on⁠ X⁠,⁠ LinkedIn⁠ and⁠ YouTube⁠

For detailed show notes, click ⁠here⁠

To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our ⁠mailing list⁠ or visit us at⁠ cambriainvestments.com⁠

-----

Follow The Idea Farm: ⁠X⁠ | ⁠LinkedIn⁠ | ⁠Instagram⁠ | ⁠TikTok⁠

-----

Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com

-----

Past guests include ⁠Ed Thorp⁠, ⁠Richard Thaler⁠, ⁠Jeremy Grantham⁠, ⁠Joel Greenblatt⁠, ⁠Campbell Harvey⁠, ⁠Ivy Zelman⁠, ⁠Kathryn Kaminski⁠, ⁠Jason Calacanis⁠, ⁠Whitney Baker,⁠ ⁠Aswath Damodaran⁠, ⁠Howard Marks⁠, ⁠Tom Barton⁠, and many more. 

-----

Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out ⁠here⁠! 

-----Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠).
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today’s guest is Jim Grant, founder and editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, which he’s been publishing since 1983. He’s a financial historian and one of the most well-respected Observers on Wall Street.

In today’s episode, Jim Grant explains why AI may be one of the greatest bubbles of all time, alongside the railroads and the dot-com era. He reframes deflation as progress, questions how murky the $2 trillion private credit market is, and explains why the Fed can’t aggressively fight inflation. To close, Jim makes his case for gold and revisits 1984, which he calls the clearest example of how strange markets can be.

(0:00) Starts

(0:39) Jim Grant on AI mania

(12:23) The economic implications of inflation & deflation

(19:56) Interest rates and private credit concerns

(27:13) The Fed's inflation target

(41:10) How to fix the Federal Reserve

(45:09) The history and role of gold in portfolios

(54:34) Jim's most memorable investment

(57:28) Historical periods to study

-----

Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube

For detailed show notes, click here

To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com

-----

Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok

-----

Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com

-----

Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. 

-----

Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! 

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

My guest today is Charles Ellis, founder of Greenwich Associates, longtime member of Yale’s investment committee, and author of more than 20 books, including the classic Winning the Loser’s Game.

In today’s episode, Charley reflects on writing the first major book on share repurchases 50 years ago, when the idea was so foreign that Goldman mailed it to 1,000 corporations as a “legitimizer.” Charley also walks us through his new book, Great American Investments: A History of the Bold Initiatives that Shaped a Nation, covering 14 audacious public investments from the Louisiana Purchase to the Marshall Plan. He explains how each came down to one or two obsessed individuals, why Alaska turned out to be the bargain of the century, and how Frances Perkins muscled Social Security into law.

As the episode winds down, he shares the lunch with Sandy Gottesman in the early 1970s that led him to buy Berkshire Hathaway at $700 a share — and hold it ever since.

(0:00) Starts

(1:54) Charley on stock buybacks

(8:06) Current state of investing and behavioral economics

(11:37) Advice for young investors and long-term strategies

(16:41) Charley's new book: Great American Investments: A History of the Bold Initiatives that Shaped a Nation

(25:42) The origins of social Security

(32:46) American entrepreneurship

(36:43) Will AI be the next great American investment?

(42:34) Most memorable investment

-----

Sponsor: ⁠Ivy Invest ⁠- To learn more about Ivy Invest's SEC-registered endowment-style fund, view the prospectus, and learn how to invest, visit ⁠ivyinvest.co/fund

-----

Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube

For detailed show notes, click here

To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com

-----

Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok

-----

Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com

-----

Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. 

-----

Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! 

-----Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices