The Derivative

In this episode, former Milwaukee Brewers left-hander Scott Karl traces his path from Carlsbad standout to big league starter to financial advisor. He swaps stories with Jeff about Bandon Dunes and his move from California to Lake Norman, then dives into his career, getting a last-minute shot after the ’94 strike, surviving as a finesse pitcher in a power era, facing legends like Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, and Sammy Sosa, and taking the mound during the 1998 home run chase. Scott shares how he lost roughly 70% of his portfolio in the dot-com bust while still playing, what it taught him about risk and advisors, and how it pushed him into wealth management. He explains why many athletes blow through life-changing money, how he builds portfolios with buffered ETFs, structured notes, and private credit, and how he manages expectations around upside, downside, and liquidity. The conversation widens to NIL, parents effectively betting travel-ball costs on scholarships, and the risk of turning college sports into a money race. Scott also talks about raising two Division I volleyball players, the mental side of high performance, and how those lessons carry into investing, before closing with his favorite baseball cities and parks, from Wrigley day games to the old Jake in Cleveland and nostalgic nights at Dodger Stadium. SEND IT!
Chapters:
00:00-02:21=Intro
02:22-09:59= Private Jets, Bandon Dunes, and the Road from Carlsbad to the Big Leagues
10:00-24:09= Facing Maddux and the Big Unit: Velocity, Wiffle Balls, and the Rise of the 100-MPH Era
24:10-34:12= From Million-Dollar Contracts to Going Broke: Why Pro Athletes Struggle with Money
34:13-44:17= Making a Short Career Last a Lifetime: Contracts, Risk Math, and Smoother Portfolios
44:18-56:31= Buffers, Structured Notes, and Private Credit: Building Smoother Rides Through Rough Markets
56:32-01:05:47= First Responders vs. Second Responders: Buffers, Managed Futures, and Protecting the Downside
01:05:48-01:14:25= NIL, Transfers, and Pandora’s Box: How College Sports Turned into a Money Game
01:14:26-01:22:28= From Youth Sports to Life After the Game: Parenting, Perspective, and Baseball’s Best Cities
01:22:28-01:27:57= Gibsons, Wrigley Day Games, and Why Petco Might Be Baseball’s Best Park

From the Episode: 
PIVOT PODCAST (Caleb Williams podcast episode)
https://open.spotify.com/episode/4qO6oXmftTn8Jl4Ru3R4Mg?si=kzx-UJ_YTe25pDr8mNHfAQ&nd=1&dlsi=4cc9da8589d542a2
Follow along with ⁠Scott⁠ and ⁠Silverleaf WM⁠ on LinkedIn and be sure to check out ⁠silverleafwealth.com⁠ for more information!
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Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer⁠⁠⁠⁠

Jeff Malec sits down with Christopher Reeve, Chief Investment Officer of Aspect Capital, one of the original managed futures shops with roots tracing back to the "L" in AHL. Chris shares his path from chemistry and early-2000s AI at Oxford to 22 years at Aspect, where he now runs the investment side of the business. Jeff puts every trend following critique on the table, too big, too simple, too crowded, just beta, and Chris pushes back on all of it. They dig into why the edge is real but small, why multi-model diversification is the whole game, and why stacking lookalike models is fake diversification dressed up in a lab coat. The conversation covers cocoa and silver finally paying off, the replicator debate, why bond futures are really just seven yield curves in a trench coat, the case against explicit stops, and prediction markets.

Plus King Charles, horses, chickens, and the Superman jokes that write themselves. - SEND IT!

Chapters:
00:00-01:21=Intro
01:22-11:00= From Oxford AI and Chemistry to Building a Managed Futures Powerhouse
11:01-18:51= Is Trend Following Too Big and Too Simple? Edges, Critics, and the Evolution of Models
18:52-27:49= Designing Durable Trend: Multi‑Model Diversification, Modulators, and the Real Meaning of Crisis Alpha
27:50-35:39= Correlated Trendlessness, Crisis Alpha Expectations, and Why Aspect Refused to “Optimize” for the Last Decade
35:40-44:05= From Silver to Cocoa: Why Obscure and Alternative Markets Supercharge Trend Diversification
44:06-52:04= Replicators, Bond Pain, and the Illusion of Fixed-Income Diversification
52:05-01:00:25= How Aspect Sizes Positions, Builds Macro Models, and Lives with Real-World Risk
01:00:26-01:06:42= Systematic Macro, Horses, and “Hair‑Dryer Alpha” in Prediction Markets
From the Episode: 
Hi Ho Silver Post
Trend Following’s Bond Problem
The History of Managed Futures (whitepaper)

Follow along with Christopher Reeve & Aspect Capital on LinkedIn and be sure to check out aspectcapital.com for more information!

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Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer⁠⁠⁠⁠

Recorded live in Puerto Rico, this special episode of The Derivative features host Jeff Malec with guests Brent Johnson, Jason Buck, and Mark Tower exploring how alternative investments are behaving in a world shifting from globalization to de‑globalization. The panel covers why some managed futures and volatility strategies haven’t delivered as expected in recent crises, the growing stress in private credit and liquidity mismatches, and the evolving roles of gold and Bitcoin as hedges against instability and fiat risk. They also dig into de‑dollarization versus continued dollar dominance, the power and data‑center boom tied to AI, and the coming capital wave into defense‑related technology and critical minerals. Finally, they debate whether AI is a truly transformational, deflationary force or just another tech cycle, how it may reshape portfolios, and how Puerto Rico’s unique tax regime influences where and how to run active trading strategies. SEND IT!
Asset Management One Disclaimer: Asset Management One USA Inc. is a New York-based investment advisor and a part of Asset Management One Co., Ltd. group, a global asset management company headquartered in Japan. Asset Management One USA Inc. is jointly owned by Mizuho Americas LLC (MALLC) and Dai-Ichi Holdings. Asset Management Group consists of AMO USA as well as Asset Management One Co., Ltd and its subsidiaries including Asset Management One Alternative Investments, Asset Management One International Ltd., and Asset Management One Hong Kong Limited. The views expressed in this recording are the personal views of the participants as of the date indicated and do not necessarily reflect the views of Asset Management One USA Inc. itself. This recording has been prepared solely for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation of any specific security, strategy, or investment product. Nothing in this interview is intended to be, and you should not consider anything in this interview to be, investment, accounting, tax or legal advice.
Chapters:
00:00-01:53= Intro
01:54-10:30= When “Uncorrelated” Alts Don’t Work as Expected10:31-19:06= Private Credit’s Gray Rhino, De-Dollarization Myths, and Gold vs. Bitcoin as Fiat Hedges19:07-28:05= AI, Data Centers, and the New Defense & Minerals Supercycle28:06-36:52= Prediction Markets, Speculation, and the Gamification of Risk36:63-47:08= AI Shockwaves, Puerto Rico Tax Edges, and Letting Algorithms Run the Portfolio47:09-50:35= Wrestling w/ Risk: WWE Analogies and Final Takeaways on a Fracturing World
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Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer⁠⁠⁠⁠

Join Jeff Malec for another solo Six Pack episode of The Derivative, where he riffs on everything from the post-COVID conference circuit to bond markets, AI, and yes… public restrooms. Jeff contrasts the buttoned-up energy of iConnections with the beach-side vibes of Future Proof and asks whether meeting managers face-to-face actually improves allocation decisions or just introduces new biases. He digs into Florida's great hedge fund migration and whether the tax savings actually pencil out, breaks down why the last five years have been historically brutal for bonds and what that's meant for managed futures globally, and tackles AI's deflationary potential, the "ghost GDP" thesis, and the governance question of letting a handful of private companies set moral guardrails for systems increasingly doing human jobs. On the lighter side, Jeff shares his experience racing Switzerland's legendary Inferno downhill and closes with a definitive ranking of public hand-drying solutions. If you're an allocator, markets nerd, or just someone with strong opinions about restroom hand dryers, this one's for you. 
Consider this episode a six pack best enjoyed in one long, thoughtful sip SEND IT!
Chapters:
00:00-00:41=Intro
00:42-06:26= #1 Conference Circuit, iConnections vs. Future Proof, and the Allocator’s Dilemma
06:27-10:26= #2 The Florida Hedge Fund Invasion and West Palm’s Second Manhattan
10:27-15:19= #3 What the #$*@? Is Going On With Bonds? Managed Futures vs. a Broken Bond Market
15:20-21:56= # 4 AI Deflation, Ghost GDP, and Who Sets the Moral Code for Machines?
21:57-24:02= # 5 Inferno Downhills, & Ego Checks
24:03-28:41= #6 The Great Hand Dryer Debate (Ranking)

Roy Niederhoffer podcast episode: Making Market Music with Roy Niederhoffer
Citrini Blog post: When Skynet Writes a Substack: The AI Doom Piece That Moved Markets
Dwarkish podcast: The most important question nobody's asking about AIAs We May Work (Taylor Pearson Whitepaper): https://taylorpearson.substack.com/p/as-we-may-work
Inferno Murren: The World's craziest downhill ski race
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Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode, Jeff Malec sits down with Vuk Vukovic and Scott Alford of Oraclum Capital (ORCA) to explore how an academic project on elections turned into a $70M hedge fund powered by crowd predictions. Vuk explains how he and his co-founders, coming from economics, physics, and computer science backgrounds, built a survey-based system that originally nailed events like Brexit and the 2016 and 2020 U.S. elections, then adapted the same framework to financial markets. Scott breaks down how ORCA combines wisdom of crowds, network analysis, and machine learning to identify the best retail predictors each week and turn their aggregated views into directional options trades on the S&P and Nasdaq. They discuss incentives for participants, how they filter noise, why independence and diverse networks matter more than “experts,” the limits of traditional polling, and the rise, and risks, of retail trading and prediction markets. The conversation also touches on political polarization, elite networks, and what it really takes to build a differentiated strategy in today’s markets. SEND IT!

Chapters:
00:00-01:34=Intro
01:35-12:38= Origins of ORCA: From Broken Polls to a Crowd-Powered Market Prediction Engine
12:39-21:01= Why Traditional Polls Fail and How Academic Research (and Grants) Really Work
21:02-35:35= Inside ORCA’s Signal: Paying Predictors, Mapping Networks, and Turning Weekly Surveys into Option Trades
35:36-49:49= Timing the Crowd: Weekly Signals, Zero-Dated Options, and How ORCA Differs from Prediction Markets
49:50-1:01:03= Hot Streaks, Crypto Crowds, and Why True Wisdom of Crowds Needs Independent Thinkers
1:01:04-01:20:36= Retail Traders, Polarization, and Building Better Predictors: How ORCA Sees the Future of Markets

From the Episode: 

Youtube: Predict Market Moves by Oraclum https://www.youtube.com/@predictmarketmoves

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@vuk_vukovic_author/videos
Personal website: https://www.vukvukovic.org/

Follow along with Vuk , Scott and ORCA on LinkedIn, you can find Vuk on X @wolf_vukovic and ORCA @OraclumCapital as well - be sure to check out oraclumcapital.com for more information!
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