The Derivative

Copper steps out of the shadow of gold and silver in this wide‑ranging conversation with StoneX’s Natalie Scott Gray and SummerHaven’s Kurt Nelson. Jeff digs into why “Dr. Copper” sits at the heart of electrification, AI data centers, EVs, and defense, and how underinvestment in mines, fragile supply chains from Chile to the DRC, and China’s smelting dominance are setting the stage for structural shortages. Natalie breaks down the real fundamentals: tariffs, sulfuric acid bottlenecks, strategic stockpiling, and the difference between visible and hidden inventories, while Kurt connects it all to macro, inflation, and why investors may be underestimating copper versus the miners. Along the way, they hit on rare earths, environmental trade‑offs, and what rising retail interest in copper bars might signal about the next phase of the metals trade. SEND IT!
Chapters:
00:00-01:16=Intro
01:17–04:58 = Natalie & Kurt: From Chemistry Labs to Copper Markets
04:59–14:09 = What Makes “Dr. Copper” Special? Conductivity, AI, EVs & the Grid
14:10–26:41 = Inside the Copper Supply Machine: Mines, Smelters & China’s Grip
26:42–39:34 = Tariffs, Trade Wars & Regional Shortages: How Policy Moves Copper
39:35–56:19 = Structural Deficits, Sulfur Shocks & the Coming Copper Crunch
56:20–1:03:09 = Investing in Copper: Futures vs. Miners, Inflation & Retail FOMO
1:03:10–1:08:43 = Copper Bars, Lab-Grown Diamonds & Restaurant Recs

Blog Post: The Hardest Trade Is Holding the Thing That Doesn’t Hug You Back
Podcast episode: Unlocking the Commodity Risk Premium with Kurt Nelson of SummerHaven

Follow along on LinkedIn with Kurt Nelson & Natalie Scott-Gray and be sure to check out summerhavenindex.com and stonex.com for more information!
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Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode, Jeff Malec sits down with Dr. Patrick Welton to trace his remarkable path from Wisconsin kid to Stanford oncologist to veteran futures trader and founder of Welton Investment Partners. Patrick shares how trading pork bellies and interest rate futures in the late 1970s to pay tuition evolved into a decades-long career shaped by mentors at Commodities Corp, relationships with legends like Paul Tudor Jones and John Henry, and a unique “outside inside trader” role that let him keep practicing medicine at Stanford while managing money. He explains how his medical background and scientific training influence his approach to risk, uncertainty, and decision-making, and breaks down Welton’s strategy mix across trend following, macro, short-term flow trading, and equity selloff protection. Along the way, Patrick and Jeff dig into the myths around trend following “dying,” why diversification and staying power matter more than narratives, how capital flows really drive short-term moves, and what it takes to survive for 30+ years in a business where most firms disappear. SEND IT!
Chapters:
00:00-02:03=Intro
02:04-09:40=Doctor to Trader: Patrick Welton’s Origin Story, From Wauwatosa to Futures and the ER
09:41-30:03= From 1987 Crash to Commodities Corp: How Patrick and Annette Turned a Side Hustle into a Trading Career
30:04-43:19= Doctors, Scientists, and Traders: Embracing Uncertainty, Reflexivity, and the Real Drivers of Trend Following
43:20-56:16= AI, Innovation, and the “CTA Winter”: Cycles, Flows, and the Future of Trend Following
56:17-01:14:19= Building Welton’s Playbook: Diversifying Alpha, Short-Term Flows, and the Art of Surviving as an Asset Manager
01:14:20-01:29:48= Alt Data, Capital Flows, and What Really Matters: Patrick Welton on Research, Edges, and the Future of Trading
01:29:49-01:37:47= End-of-Month Myths, Market Microstructure, and the Limits of Short-Term Edges

From the Episode: 
Leverage Is Bad. Except When It Isn’t. Morningstar Just Made the Distinction Official
Book: Richer, Wiser, Happier: How the World’s Greatest Investors Win in Markets and Life

Book: Market Wizards, Updated: Interviews with Top Traders

Jack Schwager on The Derivative

Follow along with Dr. Welton and Welton Investment Partners on LinkedIn and be sure to check out Welton's website at welton.com for more information!
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Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode, former Milwaukee Brewers left-hander Scott Karl traces his path from Carlsbad standout to big league starter to financial advisor. He swaps stories with Jeff about Bandon Dunes and his move from California to Lake Norman, then dives into his career, getting a last-minute shot after the ’94 strike, surviving as a finesse pitcher in a power era, facing legends like Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, and Sammy Sosa, and taking the mound during the 1998 home run chase. Scott shares how he lost roughly 70% of his portfolio in the dot-com bust while still playing, what it taught him about risk and advisors, and how it pushed him into wealth management. He explains why many athletes blow through life-changing money, how he builds portfolios with buffered ETFs, structured notes, and private credit, and how he manages expectations around upside, downside, and liquidity. The conversation widens to NIL, parents effectively betting travel-ball costs on scholarships, and the risk of turning college sports into a money race. Scott also talks about raising two Division I volleyball players, the mental side of high performance, and how those lessons carry into investing, before closing with his favorite baseball cities and parks, from Wrigley day games to the old Jake in Cleveland and nostalgic nights at Dodger Stadium. SEND IT!
Chapters:
00:00-02:21=Intro
02:22-09:59= Private Jets, Bandon Dunes, and the Road from Carlsbad to the Big Leagues
10:00-24:09= Facing Maddux and the Big Unit: Velocity, Wiffle Balls, and the Rise of the 100-MPH Era
24:10-34:12= From Million-Dollar Contracts to Going Broke: Why Pro Athletes Struggle with Money
34:13-44:17= Making a Short Career Last a Lifetime: Contracts, Risk Math, and Smoother Portfolios
44:18-56:31= Buffers, Structured Notes, and Private Credit: Building Smoother Rides Through Rough Markets
56:32-01:05:47= First Responders vs. Second Responders: Buffers, Managed Futures, and Protecting the Downside
01:05:48-01:14:25= NIL, Transfers, and Pandora’s Box: How College Sports Turned into a Money Game
01:14:26-01:22:28= From Youth Sports to Life After the Game: Parenting, Perspective, and Baseball’s Best Cities
01:22:28-01:27:57= Gibsons, Wrigley Day Games, and Why Petco Might Be Baseball’s Best Park

From the Episode: 
PIVOT PODCAST (Caleb Williams podcast episode)
https://open.spotify.com/episode/4qO6oXmftTn8Jl4Ru3R4Mg?si=kzx-UJ_YTe25pDr8mNHfAQ&nd=1&dlsi=4cc9da8589d542a2
Follow along with ⁠Scott⁠ and ⁠Silverleaf WM⁠ on LinkedIn and be sure to check out ⁠silverleafwealth.com⁠ for more information!
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Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer⁠⁠⁠⁠

Jeff Malec sits down with Christopher Reeve, Chief Investment Officer of Aspect Capital, one of the original managed futures shops with roots tracing back to the "L" in AHL. Chris shares his path from chemistry and early-2000s AI at Oxford to 22 years at Aspect, where he now runs the investment side of the business. Jeff puts every trend following critique on the table, too big, too simple, too crowded, just beta, and Chris pushes back on all of it. They dig into why the edge is real but small, why multi-model diversification is the whole game, and why stacking lookalike models is fake diversification dressed up in a lab coat. The conversation covers cocoa and silver finally paying off, the replicator debate, why bond futures are really just seven yield curves in a trench coat, the case against explicit stops, and prediction markets.

Plus King Charles, horses, chickens, and the Superman jokes that write themselves. - SEND IT!

Chapters:
00:00-01:21=Intro
01:22-11:00= From Oxford AI and Chemistry to Building a Managed Futures Powerhouse
11:01-18:51= Is Trend Following Too Big and Too Simple? Edges, Critics, and the Evolution of Models
18:52-27:49= Designing Durable Trend: Multi‑Model Diversification, Modulators, and the Real Meaning of Crisis Alpha
27:50-35:39= Correlated Trendlessness, Crisis Alpha Expectations, and Why Aspect Refused to “Optimize” for the Last Decade
35:40-44:05= From Silver to Cocoa: Why Obscure and Alternative Markets Supercharge Trend Diversification
44:06-52:04= Replicators, Bond Pain, and the Illusion of Fixed-Income Diversification
52:05-01:00:25= How Aspect Sizes Positions, Builds Macro Models, and Lives with Real-World Risk
01:00:26-01:06:42= Systematic Macro, Horses, and “Hair‑Dryer Alpha” in Prediction Markets
From the Episode: 
Hi Ho Silver Post
Trend Following’s Bond Problem
The History of Managed Futures (whitepaper)

Follow along with Christopher Reeve & Aspect Capital on LinkedIn and be sure to check out aspectcapital.com for more information!

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Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer⁠⁠⁠⁠

Recorded live in Puerto Rico, this special episode of The Derivative features host Jeff Malec with guests Brent Johnson, Jason Buck, and Mark Tower exploring how alternative investments are behaving in a world shifting from globalization to de‑globalization. The panel covers why some managed futures and volatility strategies haven’t delivered as expected in recent crises, the growing stress in private credit and liquidity mismatches, and the evolving roles of gold and Bitcoin as hedges against instability and fiat risk. They also dig into de‑dollarization versus continued dollar dominance, the power and data‑center boom tied to AI, and the coming capital wave into defense‑related technology and critical minerals. Finally, they debate whether AI is a truly transformational, deflationary force or just another tech cycle, how it may reshape portfolios, and how Puerto Rico’s unique tax regime influences where and how to run active trading strategies. SEND IT!
Asset Management One Disclaimer: Asset Management One USA Inc. is a New York-based investment advisor and a part of Asset Management One Co., Ltd. group, a global asset management company headquartered in Japan. Asset Management One USA Inc. is jointly owned by Mizuho Americas LLC (MALLC) and Dai-Ichi Holdings. Asset Management Group consists of AMO USA as well as Asset Management One Co., Ltd and its subsidiaries including Asset Management One Alternative Investments, Asset Management One International Ltd., and Asset Management One Hong Kong Limited. The views expressed in this recording are the personal views of the participants as of the date indicated and do not necessarily reflect the views of Asset Management One USA Inc. itself. This recording has been prepared solely for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation of any specific security, strategy, or investment product. Nothing in this interview is intended to be, and you should not consider anything in this interview to be, investment, accounting, tax or legal advice.
Chapters:
00:00-01:53= Intro
01:54-10:30= When “Uncorrelated” Alts Don’t Work as Expected10:31-19:06= Private Credit’s Gray Rhino, De-Dollarization Myths, and Gold vs. Bitcoin as Fiat Hedges19:07-28:05= AI, Data Centers, and the New Defense & Minerals Supercycle28:06-36:52= Prediction Markets, Speculation, and the Gamification of Risk36:63-47:08= AI Shockwaves, Puerto Rico Tax Edges, and Letting Algorithms Run the Portfolio47:09-50:35= Wrestling w/ Risk: WWE Analogies and Final Takeaways on a Fracturing World
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