UBS On-Air: Market Moves

A wide-ranging conversation on the current rate environment, the road ahead for monetary policy, and the landscape for broader fixed income investing. Featured are Phoebe White, Head of US Rates Strategy at UBS Group Research, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office.

China’s July consumer and producer price inflation were lower than expected. China’s domestic prices have a weak relationship with export prices, and China's export prices have a weak relationship with global inflation. The price declines were attributed to energy and tourism services. However, this is another economy where inflation has been lower than consensus. Possibly the consensus is being distorted by the unusual experiences of 2022.

The scale of the AI buildout is extending its effects beyond the technology sector and equity markets to the broader economy. This episode explores what the investment surge could mean for productivity, growth, inflation, and interest rates, and how investors can balance exposure to AI beneficiaries with assets resilient to its broader macroeconomic effects.

China’s July export data was somewhat stronger than expected. The big three electrification exports have collectively been important to export growth. China’s exports to the US are steady around pre-pandemic levels (using China’s data, which is probably a better reflection of trade trends). German June exports were stronger than expected and (of course) past data was revised stronger.

Today is the release of everything economists do not understand about the US economy—otherwise known as second quarter productivity. Productivity has assumed mythical status as people search for AI benefits. While technology should improve a company’s or sector’s productivity, its macro impact is less certain as people move into less productive jobs. Some productivity gains will not be counted—my robot lawnmower has substantially improved my productivity, but cutting my lawn was never part of GDP.