All-Time Highs. Record Complacency | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
Markets are sitting at all-time highs, but under the surface, the options market is flashing signs of extreme positioning. In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma returns to break down the latest options expiration cycle and what it could mean for stocks going forward.We discuss why record call buying, minimal hedging, and low implied volatility are creating a potentially fragile setup — and why upcoming events like CPI, VIX expiration, and tariffs could act as catalysts. Whether you're a long-term investor or a short-term trader, this conversation offers a deeper look at how positioning, dealer flows, and volatility pricing impact market behavior.Topics covered include:Why extreme call skew signals crowdingThe importance of gamma, vanna, and charmHow options flows can drive short-term market movesThe "window of weakness" around OPEX and VIX expirationThe role of tariffs, CPI, and macro catalysts in this setupTactical implications for investors and traders
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1:00:24
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1:00:24
The Rally No One Trusts | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma break down the forces at play beneath the surface of the market as we head into the May 2025 options expiration (OPEX). While the S&P 500 has rallied hard, a deeper look at positioning, liquidity, volatility, and sentiment reveals a market on a potentially fragile footing. From the continued explosion of zero DTE options to concerning signs from liquidity metrics, this discussion explores how short-term positioning could dictate major moves—and why the post-OPEX landscape may not be as stable as it appears. Plus, yes… we finally explain the "Saul Goodman" reference.🔑 Topics Covered:Why May’s OPEX setup is lopsided with call exposure—and why that’s dangerousThe eerie lack of downside hedging despite a big market rallyHow zero DTE options and mean reversion flows are masking real volatilityThe dangerous illusion of low realized vol vs. wide intraday rangesWhy poor liquidity is a potential precursor for the next volatility eventAnalysis of SPX vs. SPY positioning—and which one signals more riskThe “Saul Goodman” signal: What it means and why it might be a contrarian tellWhat the data says about a potential flip post-OPEXJune expiration on deck: Could it be the next volatility catalyst?
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1:03:38
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1:03:38
An Unprecedented Lack of Liquidity: What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack and Brent dive deep into the market turmoil following "Liberation Day" and the implementation of new tariffs. With volatility spiking to levels not seen since the 2020 COVID crash, the hosts analyze how options markets are reacting, why liquidity has evaporated, and what investors should expect in this new higher-volatility regime. The conversation covers everything from VIX behavior to options positioning, and provides critical insights for navigating these turbulent markets.Key Topics Covered:The recent market volatility spike and why this represents a fundamental "regime change"How options market makers are reacting to the tariff announcements and subsequent 90-day pauseWhy liquidity has disappeared from markets and its impact on price movementsThe significance of this month's options expiration and VIX expirationWhy zero-DTE options are NOT the cause of recent volatilityTechnical support and resistance levels based on options positioningGold's recent surge and signs it may be ready for consolidationThe impact of increased correlation across asset classesExpectations for upcoming earnings season and its importance in this environment
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59:35
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59:35
One of the Fastest Corrections in History: What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
In the latest episode of the OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba take a look behind the scenes of the big market selloff and the options flows driving it. They break down the massive options expiration coming up (the second-largest ever) and its potential impact on market movements.Key topics covered:Understanding the current high-volatility environment and why options volumes are driving increased market swingsAnalysis of the JPMorgan collar trade at the crucial 5565 level and its market implicationsDeep dive into the mysterious "Captain Condor" trader and their impact on market dynamicsDiscussion of multiple major events ahead: VIX expiration, FOMC meeting, quarterly OPEX, and potential tariff deadlineExamination of fixed-strike volatility and why traditional VIX readings might be misleading in the current environment
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1:06:03
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1:06:03
Danger in Market Calm? What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
In this episode, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba analyze the current state of the options market heading into the February 2024 options expiration. They explore several critical themes, including:Why volatility remains surprisingly low despite significant market-moving eventsThe unusual dynamic where large single-stock moves (like NVIDIA's historic drop) aren't translating into broader market volatilityThe concerning signs in correlation metrics that echo patterns from past market stress periodsThe critical role of NVIDIA's upcoming earnings as a potential catalystWhy the current environment shows signs of stretched positioning that could lead to future volatilityThe shifting dynamics in Tesla options and the broader implications for market sentimentBrent shares his unique insights on why we're seeing an environment where traders are responding to market drops by selling calls rather than buying puts, and what this means for market stability. He also breaks down why the upcoming NVIDIA earnings report on February 26th could be a pivotal event for market direction.Whether you're an options trader or just interested in understanding market dynamics, this discussion provides valuable insights into the forces currently shaping market behavior.
The OPEX Effect is a joint podcast from Excess Returns and SpotGamma where we take a deep dive into the world of options and the flows they generate in markets. Join Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand every month on Options Expiration week as they look at the major developments in the options world and how they impact all of our portfolios.
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