Excess Returns

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Victoria Greene of G Squared Private Wealth for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro risk, portfolio construction, and how investors should think about 2026 and beyond. Victoria brings a pragmatic, risk-aware framework to investing, blending top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals, technicals, and a strong focus on cash flow, diversification, and policy risk. We cover everything from the rise of what she calls a badger market, to AI capex, market concentration, inflation risk, and why policy error, not valuation, is what historically ends bull markets.
Main topics covered
• Why valuation is a poor market timing tool and what actually ends bull markets
• The concept of a badger market and how investors should mentally prepare for volatility
• Cash flow never lies and how Victoria evaluates business quality
• Diversification in 2026 and why international, commodities, and value matter more now
• Risks and opportunities in the labor market, AI-driven disruption, and productivity
• The K-shaped economy and what it means for consumers and corporate earnings
• 60/40 portfolios, alternatives, and where commodities fit today
• AI investing from infrastructure to software and cybersecurity
• Yield curve dynamics, inflation risk, and portfolio positioning
• Active vs passive investing in a concentrated market
• How policy decisions and election dynamics influence markets
Timestamps
00:00 Intro and why valuation does not kill bull markets
01:40 Investment philosophy and macro first portfolio construction
06:00 Cash flow never lies explained
07:40 Diversification beyond US large caps
10:00 Market expectations and big tech earnings risk
11:00 What is a badger market
12:40 Is the 60 40 portfolio dead
15:00 Why Victoria remains constructive on markets
18:00 Politics, sentiment, and market noise
21:00 Policy error vs valuation as the real risk
26:40 The K-shaped economy and consumer health
31:10 Hard data vs soft data disconnect
34:10 Labor market risks and data reliability
36:40 Yield curve steepening and inflation risk
41:40 Portfolio positioning in a higher inflation world
43:00 How to invest in AI beyond the Mag 7
47:20 Where we are in the AI cycle
49:30 Active management challenges and opportunities
53:00 Valuation, planning, and long-term return expectations

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Join Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler for the premiere episode of Last Call, a new monthly market wrap show where we go beyond the headlines to deliver actionable investment insights — and have a little fun along the way.
Instead of focusing on index performance or short-term moves, we step back and connect the dots between macro instability, narrative shifts, options market signals, private credit risk, AI capital spending, and the changing nature of the Magnificent Seven.
Featuring conversations with Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma, Ben Hunt from Perscient, Kai Wu from Sparkline Capital, and clips from our recent interviews with Liz Ann Sonders and Aswath Damodaran, the episode blends market structure, behavioral finance, valuation discipline, and long-term investing context to help investors understand what is really driving today’s market environment — and how to think about it going forward.
Main Topics:
• Why this is not a traditional market recap and how Last Call is designed to be more useful for investors
• Instability versus uncertainty — and why today’s market feels different• Loss of trust in institutions, policy, and global systems and its impact on markets
• What options market flows reveal about hidden market risks and sudden volatility• How private credit has reached bubble-like conditions and why narrative risk matters
• The debate over retail and retirement account exposure to private credit• Why valuation discipline looks different when correlations rise across asset classes
• Aswath Damodaran on trimming positions, raising cash, and the difficulty of finding uncorrelated assets
• How the Magnificent Seven are changing from asset-light to asset-heavy businesses
• AI capital expenditure, historical spending booms, and why infrastructure builders often underperform
• Whether this AI cycle is truly different from railroads, telecom, and past technology booms
Timestamps
00:00 — Intro and opening clips
01:10 — What Last Call is and why this format exists
04:30 — Instability versus uncertainty in today’s market
09:58 — Loss of trust, gold, and historical parallels
13:18 — Brent Kochuba on options flows and hidden market stress
25:17 — How options dislocations explain sudden market drops
25:40 — Ben Hunt on private credit narrative risk
28:00 — Why private credit exposure is everywhere
32:32 — Retail access versus restrictions in private credit
36:19 — What happens if the private credit bubble breaks
39:28 — Aswath Damodaran on raising cash and trimming positions
47:08 — The changing nature of the Magnificent Seven
47:42 — Kai Wu on AI capex and asset-heavy tech
50:48 — Why high capital spending often leads to underperformance
56:01 — Historical parallels from railroads to the dot-com boom

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined again by Dan Rasmussen of Verdad Advisors for a wide-ranging conversation that challenges some of the most popular narratives in markets today. From private equity and private credit risks to AI-driven capital cycles and overlooked opportunities in biotech and international equities, Dan offers a deeply research-driven perspective on where investors may be misallocating capital and where future returns could emerge. Alongside Justin and special guest co-host Kai Wu, the discussion connects valuation, incentives, and innovation in a market environment shaped by concentration, leverage, and technological change.
Main topics covered
• Why private equity performance continues to disappoint and where the biggest structural risks are emerging
• The growing stress in private credit and what rising bankruptcies signal for lower middle-market deals
• Why democratizing private equity through 401ks, interval funds, and ETFs may create more problems than solutions
• How AI CapEx is changing the economics of Big Tech and why asset-light models may be getting worse, not better
• The case for diversifying away from U.S. concentration toward international markets and international small value
• Why bubbles are often necessary for innovation and how to think about AI through that historical lens
• How investors may be underestimating valuation and growth bankruptcy risk in the Mag 7
• Why biotech is one of the hardest sectors to model and how Verdad rebuilt its framework from scratch
• How intangible value, clinical trial data, specialist ownership, and peer momentum can improve biotech investing
• What capital starvation, M&A dynamics, and global competition mean for biotech’s future returns
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and market narratives
02:20 Revisiting private equity risks and performance
06:58 Private credit stress and bankruptcy signals
10:58 Private equity in 401ks and interval fund risks
14:52 Private assets in ETFs and liquidity concerns
15:45 Why bubbles drive innovation and capital formation
20:13 AI CapEx, Mag 7 concentration, and valuation risk
25:24 International diversification and market leadership
29:41 Why Verdad turned to biotech research
37:13 Rebuilding biotech valuation and quality metrics
44:26 Clinical trial data and peer momentum insights
49:17 Portfolio construction and long-short biotech strategies
51:00 Capital starvation, AI, and biotech’s setup
53:58 Research culture, humility, and evolving quant models

In this episode of our new show The 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom explore how the words investors use quietly shape the decisions they make — often in destructive ways. From labels like “cheap,” “expensive,” and “compounder” to debates about valuation, concentration, and AI, the conversation digs into how language collapses uncertainty into false certainty. Drawing on general semantics, mental models, and decades of investing experience, they explain why confusing maps for reality leads investors astray — and how clearer thinking can change how you see markets, risk, and long-term returns.
Topics discussed include:
Why paying 30x earnings can be rational when return on invested capital stays high

How the word “is” smuggles hidden assumptions into investment decisions

The difference between a company being a compounder and having compounded in the past

Why valuation debates are really disagreements about time horizon

The “map vs. territory” problem in financial statements and market data

Market concentration, index construction, and why benchmarks can mislead investors

How language shapes narratives around value, growth, and risk

AI investing, capital allocation, and separating durable businesses from hype

Why many binary true-or-false questions are traps for investors

How long-term investors think in decades, not quarters

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with TG Macro founder Tony Greer to explore why markets are increasingly signaling a loss of faith in institutions and what that means for investors heading into 2026. Tony lays out a framework that connects inflation, central bank credibility, political risk, global regime change, and shifting consumer behavior into a coherent macro narrative. From gold and precious metals to miners, commodities, cyclicals, and the evolving role of AI, this conversation bridges big-picture macro themes with actionable market insights for both traders and long-term investors.
Topics covered:
• Why gold is rallying as trust in institutions erodes
• Central banks, inflation, and the long-term consequences of monetary policy
• The shift from a 60-40 portfolio to alternatives and real assets
• Precious metals versus technology leadership in a changing market regime
• Gold miners, industrial miners, and uranium as core themes
• Consumer inflation, food prices, and purchasing power on Main Street
• Big Food, Big Pharma, and the broader trust breakdown
• Legal, political, and geopolitical risks shaping investor behavior
• The end of globalization and the rise of domestic supply chains
• Copper, energy, and natural resources in an economic recovery
• AI, semiconductors, and signs of a leadership transition
• Prediction markets and new tools for understanding market expectations
• Financials, airlines, and overlooked cyclical opportunities
• How to think about risk management when macro regimes change
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and the collapse of trust in institutions
02:00 Why gold is responding to credibility loss, not fear
05:00 Central banks, inflation, and monetary excess
08:20 Purchasing power and real-world inflation pressures
11:00 Big Food, Big Pharma, and consumer awareness
14:00 Healthcare, fraud, and institutional breakdown
16:30 Legal system risk and political credibility
18:30 Global factors, sanctions, and the shift away from globalization
21:00 Precious metals, miners, and natural resource leadership
25:00 The three mining themes driving performance
29:00 Stocks and gold rising together in a new regime
32:00 Gold market structure and long-term trend analysis
36:00 Japan, global bond markets, and gold demand
39:00 Investing versus trading precious metals
43:00 Copper, supply chains, and tech partnerships
47:00 AI leadership, capital rotation, and market risk
51:00 Financials, airlines, and cyclical signals
57:30 What would break the thesis and risk management signals