Excess Returns

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Nir Kaissar for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, AI, interest rates, private credit, small caps, and the risks investors may be underestimating. Nir shares his unexpected predictions for 2026, challenges the consensus on Fed rate cuts, explains why high profitability may be putting a floor under valuations, and offers a thoughtful framework for thinking about AI, concentration risk, and the future of public versus private markets. This is a deep dive into today’s most important investing debates, grounded in history and focused on what may come next.
Topics Covered
Nir’s unexpected predictions for 2026 and why mass adoption of autonomous vehicles may arrive faster than investors expect

Why the consensus on lower interest rates in 2026 may be wrong and what the two year Treasury yield is signaling

The impact of tariffs, affordability pressures, and corporate margins on inflation

Why high corporate profitability may support elevated stock market valuations even if returns slow

The role of earnings growth in driving S&P 500 returns and why 2015 to 2024 may not repeat

Is AI more like 1995 or 1999 in the internet cycle and what that means for long term investors

The convergence of big tech companies around AI and the risks of a more zero sum competitive landscape

Why companies staying private longer could hurt retail investors and distort public market indices

Concentration risk in the S&P 500 and what it means for long term portfolio construction

Opportunities and risks in small cap stocks, including the importance of quality screens

The growth of private credit markets and the hidden risks investors may not see

Why Treasuries may still be the cleanest shirt in the laundry during a crisis

Lessons from 20 years of running strategies and what Nir has changed his mind about

Timestamps
00:00 Nir’s 2026 predictions and the rise of Waymo
05:00 Interest rates, Trump, and the outlook for Fed policy
08:40 Tariffs, inflation, and corporate margins
12:00 Valuations, profitability, and future S&P 500 returns
16:00 AI compared to the internet era and long term investing lessons
19:00 Public versus private markets and regulatory concerns
32:00 Concentration risk and the Magnificent Seven
39:00 Small caps, quality screens, and value opportunities
47:00 Private credit risks and default cycles
54:30 Nir’s investment philosophy and 20 year lessons

David Giroux, CIO of T. Rowe Price and manager of the Capital Appreciation strategy, joins Excess Returns for a wide ranging discussion on market valuation, AI investing, Mag 6 dynamics, utilities, healthcare, fixed income, and how to think independently in volatile markets. David shares his framework for exploiting structural market inefficiencies, why market drawdowns can create opportunity, how he evaluates the S&P 500 at the micro level, and what investors are getting wrong about AI, profit margins, and the current cycle.
Main topics covered in this episode
• Exploiting structural market inefficiencies in GARP stocks, high yield, and double B credit
• Why market drawdowns often lower forward risk and increase expected returns
• Strategic equity allocation during periods of fear and volatility
• Rethinking S&P 500 valuation through 500 company bottom up analysis
• The changing composition of the index and its impact on profit margins
• Where the most overvalued and undervalued areas of the market may be today
• AI investing framework including Nvidia, AMD, cloud providers, and software risk
• How AI could reshape margins, labor productivity, and enterprise software
• Differences between today and the dotcom bubble
• Overweight positioning in utilities and healthcare and the thesis behind each
• Fixed income positioning including the belly of the Treasury curve and fiscal risk
• Commodities, gold, and fiscal sustainability
• Lessons for portfolio managers on independent thinking and making high conviction bets
Timestamps
00:00 Market drawdowns and forward returns
02:09 Exploiting structural market inefficiencies
06:28 Strategic equity allocation during selloffs
11:22 Is the market expensive and how to value the S&P 500
15:00 Profit margins and index composition
17:13 Where valuation excess exists outside the Mag 6
20:38 How to think about AI and enterprise adoption
27:18 AI disruption risk across sectors
39:20 AI versus the dotcom bubble
42:30 Apple versus Meta and capital allocation
46:53 Overweight utilities and healthcare
52:57 Fixed income opportunities and risks
57:32 Commodities, gold, and fiscal concerns
01:00:15 Lessons for new portfolio managers

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, for a wide-ranging conversation on market sentiment, asset rotation, and the growing signals of stress beneath the surface of global markets. Kevin explains why extreme bullishness can be dangerous, why gold and commodities may be flashing warning signs, and how shifts in currencies, energy, and global capital flows could reshape portfolios in the years ahead. From hedging strategies to volatility, from AI-driven concentration to international diversification, this discussion focuses on how investors can think clearly in an environment where traditional relationships are breaking down.
Topics covered:
Why extreme bullish sentiment can be a warning sign for markets

The meaning of “buying straw hats in the winter” and how to think about hedging

Market breadth, small caps, and whether rotations are healthy or late cycle

Gold, silver, and what precious metals signal about financial stress

Cross-asset volatility and why correlations are changing

Energy markets, commodities, and the long-term impact of underinvestment

Global capital flows, foreign ownership of US assets, and currency risk

The US dollar, trade deficits, and implications for international investors

Portfolio construction lessons from bonds, commodities, and FX

How macro regime shifts can change risk management and diversification

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and market sentiment overview
03:00 Buying protection and the straw hat analogy
07:00 Sentiment indicators and market confirmation
12:00 Market rotations, small caps, and late-cycle risks
18:00 Gold, silver, and precious metals as warning signals
23:00 Bonds, currencies, and broken correlations
29:00 Energy markets and commodity underinvestment
37:00 Global capital flows and foreign ownership of US assets
44:00 The US dollar, trade deficits, and FX volatility
52:00 Macro regime shifts and portfolio construction lessons

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Victoria Greene of G Squared Private Wealth for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro risk, portfolio construction, and how investors should think about 2026 and beyond. Victoria brings a pragmatic, risk-aware framework to investing, blending top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals, technicals, and a strong focus on cash flow, diversification, and policy risk. We cover everything from the rise of what she calls a badger market, to AI capex, market concentration, inflation risk, and why policy error, not valuation, is what historically ends bull markets.
Main topics covered
• Why valuation is a poor market timing tool and what actually ends bull markets
• The concept of a badger market and how investors should mentally prepare for volatility
• Cash flow never lies and how Victoria evaluates business quality
• Diversification in 2026 and why international, commodities, and value matter more now
• Risks and opportunities in the labor market, AI-driven disruption, and productivity
• The K-shaped economy and what it means for consumers and corporate earnings
• 60/40 portfolios, alternatives, and where commodities fit today
• AI investing from infrastructure to software and cybersecurity
• Yield curve dynamics, inflation risk, and portfolio positioning
• Active vs passive investing in a concentrated market
• How policy decisions and election dynamics influence markets
Timestamps
00:00 Intro and why valuation does not kill bull markets
01:40 Investment philosophy and macro first portfolio construction
06:00 Cash flow never lies explained
07:40 Diversification beyond US large caps
10:00 Market expectations and big tech earnings risk
11:00 What is a badger market
12:40 Is the 60 40 portfolio dead
15:00 Why Victoria remains constructive on markets
18:00 Politics, sentiment, and market noise
21:00 Policy error vs valuation as the real risk
26:40 The K-shaped economy and consumer health
31:10 Hard data vs soft data disconnect
34:10 Labor market risks and data reliability
36:40 Yield curve steepening and inflation risk
41:40 Portfolio positioning in a higher inflation world
43:00 How to invest in AI beyond the Mag 7
47:20 Where we are in the AI cycle
49:30 Active management challenges and opportunities
53:00 Valuation, planning, and long-term return expectations

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Join Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler for the premiere episode of Last Call, a new monthly market wrap show where we go beyond the headlines to deliver actionable investment insights — and have a little fun along the way.
Instead of focusing on index performance or short-term moves, we step back and connect the dots between macro instability, narrative shifts, options market signals, private credit risk, AI capital spending, and the changing nature of the Magnificent Seven.
Featuring conversations with Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma, Ben Hunt from Perscient, Kai Wu from Sparkline Capital, and clips from our recent interviews with Liz Ann Sonders and Aswath Damodaran, the episode blends market structure, behavioral finance, valuation discipline, and long-term investing context to help investors understand what is really driving today’s market environment — and how to think about it going forward.
Main Topics:
• Why this is not a traditional market recap and how Last Call is designed to be more useful for investors
• Instability versus uncertainty — and why today’s market feels different• Loss of trust in institutions, policy, and global systems and its impact on markets
• What options market flows reveal about hidden market risks and sudden volatility• How private credit has reached bubble-like conditions and why narrative risk matters
• The debate over retail and retirement account exposure to private credit• Why valuation discipline looks different when correlations rise across asset classes
• Aswath Damodaran on trimming positions, raising cash, and the difficulty of finding uncorrelated assets
• How the Magnificent Seven are changing from asset-light to asset-heavy businesses
• AI capital expenditure, historical spending booms, and why infrastructure builders often underperform
• Whether this AI cycle is truly different from railroads, telecom, and past technology booms
Timestamps
00:00 — Intro and opening clips
01:10 — What Last Call is and why this format exists
04:30 — Instability versus uncertainty in today’s market
09:58 — Loss of trust, gold, and historical parallels
13:18 — Brent Kochuba on options flows and hidden market stress
25:17 — How options dislocations explain sudden market drops
25:40 — Ben Hunt on private credit narrative risk
28:00 — Why private credit exposure is everywhere
32:32 — Retail access versus restrictions in private credit
36:19 — What happens if the private credit bubble breaks
39:28 — Aswath Damodaran on raising cash and trimming positions
47:08 — The changing nature of the Magnificent Seven
47:42 — Kai Wu on AI capex and asset-heavy tech
50:48 — Why high capital spending often leads to underperformance
56:01 — Historical parallels from railroads to the dot-com boom