Chip Stock Investor Podcast

ASML just reported Q3 2026 earnings, and management delivered a major update: the company cannot fully meet customer demand for the next two years. With net sales hitting €11.66 billion—up 55% year over year—these results reshape the trajectory for the entire wafer fab equipment (WFE) industry.
In this episode, we break down the quarterly print and what extended capacity constraints mean for semi equipment through 2028:
End-Market Shift: How memory chipmakers and installed base management offset softer logic spending to drive the top-line surge.

Profitability & Cash: Net income near €5 billion (including ~€500M from ASML’s Mistral AI stake) and the rebound in free cash flow after several lumpy quarters.

Q4 2026 Guidance: The setup for ~52% revenue growth and record gross margins near 57%.

Revisiting Our 2028 Call: Why our earlier thesis on a potential 2028 equipment slowdown looks completely different now that ASML is weighing expansion beyond its planned 30% capacity bump.

The Fab Five & Sector Strategy: What this supply crunch signals for Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, and Tokyo Electron following the post-June sell-off—and why macro equipment allocation matters more than single-stock picking at this stage of the AI cycle.

Timestamps:

0:00 ASML Kicks Off Chip Earnings Season
1:10 The EUV Moat: Why Lithography Is a Choke Point
3:00 Sales by End Market: Memory Picks Up the Slack
4:10 Q3 2026 Revenue: +55% and the Lumpy Sales Cycle
6:00 Net Income, the Mistral AI Gain & Free Cash Flow
7:30 Revisiting Our 2028 Slowdown Call
8:10 Q4 Guide: +52% Growth and Record ~57% Margins
9:00 Capacity Constrained Through 2028: Why It’s Bullish
11:10 Fab Five Sell-Off: Is Equipment on Sale?
12:00 Allocation Over Stock Picking: Our Takeaway
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Affiliate links are sprinkled throughout our show notes. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!
Content in this episode is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. Chip Stock Investor owns shares of ASML.

SpaceX (SPCX) is down from its post-IPO highs, and it’s quietly become one of the biggest neoclouds in the AI data center buildout. Is it hype, or is there a real strategy behind the xAI and Cursor deals?
In this episode, we take an objective, numbers-first look at SpaceX as a public company, setting aside the Elon Musk controversy to focus on the business:
Why a rocket and satellite company merged with xAI and spent $60 billion in stock on the AI coding platform Cursor.

Breaking down the reported compute-leasing deal with Google, the path toward a $41 billion annualized run rate by year-end, and the goal of 10 gigawatts of compute by 2027.

Looking at the feasibility and plan to put Nvidia Vera Rubin-based data centers in orbit.

Analyzing 92% revenue growth in the June 2026 quarter, Starlink connectivity vs. AI segment revenue, adjusted EBITDA vs. EBIT, an $18.4 billion quarterly CapEx ramp compared with CoreWeave and Nebius, and a balance sheet with $100 billion in cash.

Does SpaceX belong in our portfolio right now, and which space economy stocks are on our watch list?

Timestamps:
0:00 SpaceX After the IPO: Neocloud Hype or Real Strategy?
1:05 Separating the Business From the Elon Musk Controversy
2:30 The xAI Merger: Why a Rocket Company Bought an AI Lab
4:00 The $60B Cursor Deal and Filling Its Own Data Centers
5:00 Google Deal, $41B Run Rate and the Power Outage Problem
7:05 10 Gigawatts by 2027 and Nvidia Data Centers in Orbit
10:00 Financials: 92% Revenue Growth and Shrinking Operating Profit
11:45 CapEx Ramp: SpaceX vs CoreWeave vs Nebius
13:15 Starlink vs AI Segment, EBITDA vs EBIT and the Balance Sheet
18:00 Is SPCX a Buy? Our Verdict and Space Stock Watch List
Join Semiconductor Insider: Get our complete research, weekly live Q&As, and tools to build your process at https://chipstockinvestor.com
Why Chip Stock Investor Is Becoming a Software Business: https://chipstockinvestor.com/why-chip-stock-investor-is-becoming-a-software-business/
Connect with Us: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor
Affiliate links are sprinkled throughout our show notes. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!
Content in this episode is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. Chip Stock Investor holds no shares of SpaceX.
Episode DescriptionTimestampsResources & Links

The arrival of AI agents like Meta Muse is poised to reshape e-commerce platforms and trigger a ripple effect upstream across data center silicon. In this episode, Nick breaks down how agentic workloads change the margin equation for software and hardware companies alike.
First, we examine the platform battle lines: why Amazon’s move to block Muse and Shopify’s choice to embrace it could disrupt digital advertising funnels, compress retail margins, and challenge aggregators like Booking Holdings.
Then, we follow the infrastructure dollars back to the chip supply chain. While GPUs continue to capture the bulk of AI capital expenditures, persistent AI agents running inside isolated virtual machines introduce heavy CPU and memory demands. We review the data center landscape across Nvidia, AMD, Intel, Broadcom, Marvell, and custom ASIC design houses like Alchip. Along the way, we compare revenue growth, operating margins, and relative valuations—highlighting why Intel could capture unexpected upside from incremental server CPU demand, and what 2027 memory fab additions mean for DRAM and NAND players like Micron, SK hynix, Samsung, and Kioxia.

Timestams
0:00 Meta Muse Launch: Why AI Agents Matter Now1:00 Amazon vs. Meta vs. Shopify: Revenue & Margin Breakdown2:50 “Your Margin Is My Opportunity”: Who Loses E-Com Profit4:20 Would an Amazon Sell-Off Be a Buying Opportunity?5:00 Booking Holdings & Travel: Is AI Agent Risk Overblown?7:15 GPUs vs. CPUs: What AI Agents Actually Change12:00 Memory & NAND Flash: The Agent Storage Opportunity13:30 Supplier Map & Valuations: NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MRVL18:00 Why Intel Has the Most to Gain20:20 2027 Memory Capacity & Where to Allocate Now
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Disclosure: Chip Stock Investor team members hold shares in Meta. Affiliate links may be included; if you make a purchase through them, we may earn a small commission that helps fund the channel (and Kasey's coffee habit).
Disclaimer: Content presented is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute individualized investment advice. Projections and historical analyses may not reflect future performance. All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

Onsemi shifted its acquisition of Synaptics to a $5.7B all-cash transaction following competing bid pressure. While markets initially cheered the move, the added balance sheet debt and pushed-out financial targets complicate the near-term recovery path for ON Semiconductor stock.
In this episode, Nick and Kasey break down the revised Onsemi ($ON) and Synaptics ($SYNA) merger agreement. We examine the insourcing synergies management is targeting, the resulting leverage profile, and why integration friction could keep the stock range-bound through mid-2027.
We also dive into Onsemi’s Investor Day update:• Why prior 2027 gross margin and operating margin targets are likely slipping• The 2026 operational outlook and new standalone 2030 targets (12–14% revenue CAGR and 30–35% FCF margin)• Why Monolithic Power Systems ($MPWR) continues to outpace traditional IDMs like Onsemi and Infineon ($IFNNY) by leveraging a fabless model and AI data center demand tied to next-gen architectures like Nvidia Vera Rubin• How the "Fab Right" footprint defends free cash flow, where advanced packaging fits into the thesis, and why we are holding our position today
TIMESTAMPS00:00 Why Onsemi Has Lagged Infineon and Monolithic Power00:55 The Fabless Advantage: How MPWR Pulled Ahead03:40 Revised Deal: Synaptics Goes $5.7B All-Cash05:00 New Synergies: Insourcing Synaptics Production06:20 Balance Sheet Check: Debt, Leverage & Integration Risk07:40 Investor Day: Why the 2027 Targets Will Likely Be Missed10:00 2026 Outlook and the New 2030 Targets11:40 Onsemi vs. Infineon: Margins and the Fab Right Strategy13:15 What Synaptics Adds: Fabless Margins and HMI Growth14:50 Advanced Packaging Theory and Our Position on ON
RESOURCES & LINKS• Join Semiconductor Insider for deep-dive research, valuation models, and weekly live sessions: https://www.chipstockinvestor.com• Fiscal.ai (Save 15% on the fundamental charting platform we use): https://fiscal.ai/csi• Synaptics Deep Dive Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybSvQQNE8C4• Why CSI Is Becoming a Software Business: https://chipstockinvestor.com/why-chip-stock-investor-is-becoming-a-software-business/• Connect with us across platforms: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor
Disclosure & Disclaimer: Affiliate links may be included above. If you purchase through these links, we may earn a commission that supports the show. Content in this episode is strictly for general informational and educational purposes and does not constitute individualized investment advice. Forecasts may not materialize, and investing involves the risk of loss, including the possible loss of principal. CSI holds positions in Onsemi (ON) and Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR).

Will we actually see humanoid robots in every home? While viral demos grab headlines, the real investing story in physical AI comes down to unglamorous physical bottlenecks.
In this episode, we sit down with Ankur Saxena of TDK Ventures (formerly Cisco Ventures) to break down what it will actually take for physical AI and robotics to scale. Ankur explains why major tech platform shifts are always won by whoever solves the structural bottlenecks underneath—and why in physical AI, that means edge inference, power constraints, tactile sensing, and actuators.
In this episode, we cover:
The "5 Ps" Framework: Evaluating AI compute on Performance, Price, Power, Programmability, and Privacy.

"Language is Forgiving, Physics is Not": Why robotics won’t have a sudden "ChatGPT moment" overnight.

The Hardware BOM Reality: Why actuators represent 40%–70% of a humanoid robot's cost—and what China's grip on rare-earth magnet supply chains means for Western hardware builders.

Engineering Roadblocks: The unsolved frontiers of thermal dissipation, battery density, and tactile feedback.

Valuation Check: Why crossover SaaS investors are mispricing robotics startups by ignoring industrial manufacturing cycles.

Deployment Roadmap: Why structured environments like factories and data centers come years before consumer homes, plus how vertically integrated giants like Tesla (Optimus) and SoftBank fit into the landscape.

Timestamps:

00:00 – Humanoid Robots: Why This Matters Now

01:00 – Why Winners Solve the Bottlenecks Underneath the Platform

04:00 – Defining Physical AI & the 5 Ps of Edge Compute

08:30 – "Language Is Forgiving, Physics Is Not"

11:45 – Why Robotics Won't Get a Single "ChatGPT Moment"

14:00 – Hardware BOM Breakdown: Sensors, Actuators, Batteries & Heat

20:00 – The Actuator Squeeze & Rare-Earth Magnet Supply Chains

23:00 – Valuation Reality Check: Are Robotics Startups Overpriced?

28:30 – Hardware Margins vs. Enterprise Sales Cycles

32:30 – Where Robots Deploy First: Factories, Data Centers & Vertical Integration

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Disclosures & Notes:
Affiliate links may be included above. If something catches your eye, we may earn a small commission—thanks for helping fuel our caffeine fund!
Content in this episode is for general informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial or investment advice. Projections and industry analysis may not develop as predicted. Investing in equities involves substantial risk, including the loss of principal.