Yet Another Value Podcast

Alex Roepers of Atlantic Investment Management lays out two deeply cheap special situations: Dauch (DCH) and Nomad Foods (NOMD). In both, management is sending "dark arts" signals (an aggressive CEO payout struck well above the current price, heavy insider buying) that point to an inflection the market hasn't paid for yet. We dig into the $300M merger synergies at Dauch, the auto-cycle and leverage risk, the governance red flags, the private-label threat to Nomad's frozen-food brands, and whether the European discount on both is real or just doldrums.
This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Join Andrew, Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompts, and Ben Collins of AlphaSense for a webinar breaking down the modern AI stack for investors: where horizontal platforms, agentic workflows, and finance-specific tools each actually fit in a real research process. Recording June 16, live June 25. Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions
Disclosure: long DCH and NOMD
Chapters:
0:00 Two cheap special situations and the "dark arts" setup
1:10 Sponsor: AlphaSense and the AI-stack-for-investors webinar
2:29 Alex Roepers, Atlantic Investment Management
3:04 Dauch ($DCH): the GKN, Melrose and Dowlais backstory
7:05 Why Atlantic made $DCH a core position at ~$6
9:03 The governance knock: a company named after a sub-1% CEO
13:42 Dark arts: the PSU grant that only pays above $12
15:11 Underwriting the $300M merger synergies
18:13 Leverage, capital allocation and the path to buybacks
24:42 The auto cycle and why 5x free cash flow caps the downside
29:12 Nomad Foods ($NOMD): the frozen-food bull case
33:14 Nomad by the numbers: 5.5x earnings, 7% yield
35:39 The bear case: private label, Aldi and a new CEO
39:21 Would Martin Franklin ever sell?
41:22 Dividend or buyback at these levels?
43:00 Is Franklin distracted by APi Group?
45:27 The kitchen-sink reset and a fall investor day
47:37 "Addback city": cleaning up the earnings number
50:02 The European discount: real or imagined?
Links:
Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com
See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Abivax posted maybe the best ulcerative colitis data anyone's seen, then crashed 60% on a cancer signal Adam May argues is statistical noise. We dig into whether $ABVX is now a mispriced takeout: the maintenance efficacy that beat Rinvoq, how the scary "seven cancer cases" collapse to two, the blackbox question, the Crohn's skew, and the part two safety data due within weeks. Then a quick look at Nectar (NKTR), its alopecia areata data, and the Eli Lilly lawsuit.
This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense, and specifically Andrew's upcoming AI webinar with them: breaking down the modern AI stack for investors with Dave Wang (Wall Street Prompts) and Ben Collins (AlphaSense). Goes live June 25. Register here.
Chapters:
00:00 Intro and disclosure (long ABVX and NKTR)
01:03 Sponsor: AlphaSense AI webinar for investors
02:33 The biotech "GOAT" returns
03:33 Abivax setup: induction vs maintenance, the stakes
06:38 The bar: clinical remission and Rinvoq
10:14 Blowout maintenance data, and endoscopic remission that doubles Rinvoq
14:23 The data drops, then a 60% crash
16:31 The cancer scare, taken apart case by case
24:45 Why it's statistical noise: mechanism, clustering, base rates
28:50 Adverse-event capture and the phase 2 safety database
33:57 Bear case: hasn't the market had time to digest this?
38:00 Blackbox or no blackbox, and does it matter at $100
40:32 The Crohn's readout and the skew
45:36 M&A: timing, the new CCO, what Adam wants them to do
47:38 Part two safety data due within weeks
54:46 The cash question: secondary vs sale
57:49 Nectar: strong data, then an unexplained selloff
59:54 The Eli Lilly lawsuit and the jury-trial angle
01:03:26 Ox40 read-through and the Q32 Bio overhang
01:06:07 Most mispriced pick, targets, and the CEO's Cincor parallel
01:12:10 Wrap
Links:
Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com
See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
Disclosure: Long ABVX and NKTR

Amadeus $AMS is down roughly 25% because the market lumped it in with the SaaS names AI is supposed to gut. Team Amadeus, Pershing Square Challenge finalists, argue it's the opposite: a deterministic, mission-critical monopoly that AI makes more valuable, not less. We dig into the 50-year-old systems that planes literally can't take off without, why the GDS is the wrong job for an LLM, the Sabre and Constellation Software angle, and what the stock is actually worth.
Full pitch deck (~75 pages): https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/5bwef8mz2kplx2sub598w/PSC_AMS_LONG_vSent.pdf?rlkey=x5g0v7t1qk8hpg00ewix95hn3&st=rq9nzl4h&dl=0
This episode is brought to you by Trata. Trata is two investors who get on an anonymized call and talk through the real issues in a stock, bull-to-bull, bear-to-bear, or just getting up to speed. If you like this podcast, you'll like Trata. Check it out at trata.com
Chapters:
00:00 Why Amadeus landed on my radar
01:00 Sponsor: Trata
02:39 Meet Team Amadeus (Pershing Square Challenge finalists)
05:20 What Amadeus actually does: the toll booth on global travel
09:07 The AI fear that broke the stock
11:13 Is it actually cheap? Valuation and stock comp
15:26 Why Amadeus tops the AI-risk matrix
16:32 Air IT Solutions: the SAP of airlines
22:59 The Microsoft AI director who bet against AI eating this
24:15 Tech-debt pushback and the JFK field trip
29:09 Sabre, Constellation Software, and the monopoly complaint
33:16 How Amadeus won share during COVID
34:21 The air-distribution network effect
35:22 Why LLMs are the wrong tool for the GDS
39:50 The $1B biometrics acquisition
43:03 Google, Gemini, and the uptime math
45:47 Fair value and the bull case nobody's pricing
49:01 Amadeus as an AI beneficiary
51:02 Closing thoughts
Links:
Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com
See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

A market that refuses to go down, AI coming for the investor's job, and MicroStrategy quietly becoming the entire preferred-equity market. Andrew's monthly ramble across five things he can't stop thinking about: stretched memory valuations, a hyper-concentrated tape, mental flexibility, and the cycle nobody believes can break.
This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai. Modern financial data for global equities, with a self-serve API that plugs fundamentals and prices straight into your LLM and updates within minutes of earnings, not days. Get 15% off at https://fiscal.ai/yav
Chapters:
00:00 Five things I'm rambling on this month
01:58 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai
03:16 "We'll never have problems again": a market that won't quit
04:56 Energy and oil: the worries the market keeps shrugging off
06:00 AI, space plays, and stretched memory valuations
09:54 Five stocks, half the S&P's gains
10:51 Is AI coming for the investor's job?
13:08 The counterpoint: 200-IQ machines and more fragile markets
16:10 Mental flexibility: why your old letters predicted your AI take
20:04 Why "the cycle is dead" always worries me
21:42 MicroStrategy is the preferred-equity market now
24:45 The CFO signal: leaving a big company for a small one
Links:
Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com
See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Celsius trades at ~20x earnings while growing ~18% a year, cheaper than Monster (~34x) and even Coke (~25x) despite faster growth. The Pershing Square Challenge third-place team makes the long case for $CELH: the market is sleeping on the Alani Nu acquisition, and their 500-person proprietary survey says the brand loyalty is real. Andrew pushes back hard on the Costco/Kirkland private-label threat, the heavy reliance on Pepsi distribution, and whether energy drinks are just the next "protein" fad waiting to be disrupted.
CELH pitch deck: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/rsyotzf7g2efkj9rfmg23/AHHk4_h_6CU12R-dTrAOtH4?rlkey=664lkpggv77rwkzh3rh78826q&e=2&st=0s4tiwjy&dl=0
This episode is sponsored by Trata. Trata is buy-siders interviewing each other; it is the fastest way I know to ramp up on a name. See a sample here: https://www.trata.com/celh
Chapters:
0:00 Why energy drinks (and Celsius) are a passion
1:13 Sponsor: Trata
2:46 Meet team Celsius, third place at the Pershing Square Challenge
4:23 Why they picked Celsius for the pitch
7:19 The setup: ~20x earnings, ~18% growth, an underpriced Alani
8:47 Why the market is discounting Celsius
10:09 The Costco/Kirkland private-label crash, and the rebuttal
12:26 Andrew's pushback: don't loyal buyers just order in bulk?
16:14 The proprietary 500-person survey
18:48 Distribution vs. brand: is the survey actually a bear case?
22:31 The Pepsi relationship: Rockstar, the 11% stake, and the risk
26:08 The Alani acquisition: sugar high or smart capital allocation?
31:24 Are energy drinks the next protein? The fad debate
38:40 Valuation: the Coke and Monster arbitrage
43:38 Wrap-up
Links:
Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com
See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/