The Julia La Roche Show

Andrew Pancholi, founder and CEO of the Market Timing Report, joins the show for his debut to explain his framework of mathematical cycles—repeating patterns spanning 36, 60, 90, 100, 144, and 250 years that he uses to forecast turning points across markets, commodities, and geopolitics. He argues we're broadly tracking the 1920s bull market toward a potential 2029 peak, but warns he's turned more bearish near-term after Friday's data showed smart money leaving US equities, eyeing the third week of July as a major turning point. Pancholi shares striking targets—$183 oil if Middle East conflict escalates, $6,900 gold by March 2027, and a continued bearish view on Bitcoin—while tying current events to historical cycles, including the 36-year anniversary of Saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the US 250-year empire cycle. A commercial Boeing 777 pilot, he closes by connecting aviation's risk management and situational awareness to disciplined trading, emphasizing incremental gains over any "holy grail."

Thank you to our sponsors:
Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
x.com/AndrewPancholilinkedin.com/in/andrewpancholi
youtube.com/@markettimingreport
instagram.com/andrew.pancholi
facebook.com/markettimingcyclesanalysis

Timestamps:
00:00 – Intro: who is Andrew Pancholi
01:21 – The big picture: mathematical cycles framework
02:00 – The 100-year cycle & path to 20290
2:30 – 90-year geopolitical cycle & polarization
05:29 – Equity markets: top or pullback?
08:21 – Smart money leaving US equities
10:43 – Kalshi prediction markets & 7,800 S&P target
13:15 – Third week of July turning point explained
14:12 – Charts: how the timing system works
20:17 – "You can't time the market" — the pushback
24:39 – The cycles explained: 30, 36, 45, 90, 144, 250 years
27:40 – War & revolution cycles, US civil strife
28:48 – The major war cycle nobody's talking about
31:41 – Oil outlook: $183 target
33:35 – Gold: bearish near-term, $6,900 target
35:12 – Bitcoin outlook
35:48 – The 250-year empire cycle & America's birthday
40:03 – Zero Hour book & cycles that failed
42:28 – From Boeing 777 pilot to cycles analyst
43:51 – COVID pandemic forecasted by the 100-year cycle
46:04 – Risk management lessons from flying
51:35 – Parting thoughts & where to find his work

Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche on this week's episode of "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" to break down what he calls a "slow motion train wreck" in private credit, where public and private funds alike are getting hammered with redemption requests just as the firms behind them sit on impaired assets like DSCR business-purpose loans. Whalen argues we're living through a replay of 2005 — high tide before the crack — and predicts a housing reset by 2027-2028 ("misery on the eights"), with home prices falling 10-20% and recent borrowers landing underwater. Along the way he covers double-digit inflation driven by energy supply shocks from the Strait of Hormuz, why Chair Warsh can't slow-walk rate hikes, the volatility added by agentic AI trading and ETFs, his long-term bull case for gold and silver, the unwinding of Wall Street's crypto trade, the futility of Mamdani's NYC rent freeze, and viewer questions on inflation measurement and Annaly's common vs. preferred shares.
 
Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira861
Fred Ramberg interview: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira860
Signed copy of Seeing Around Corners: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/shop
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
00:00 — Intro
01:09 — Private credit: the "slow motion train wreck" and redemptions
02:24 — Rates higher-for-longer, double-digit inflation & the Strait of Hormuz
04:02 — The hidden cost of war and inflation as a tax
05:33 — Private credit shops buying insurers & DSCR loans
06:46 — "It's 2005 again" and the road to misery on the eights
07:46 — Signposts: institutional fraud in business-purpose loans
08:45 — What a DSCR loan is vs. a residential mortgage
11:55 — The private credit gates connection
12:32 — Predicting the 2028 housing reset & price declines
14:52 — How rising prices have masked defaults
15:27 — A 10-20% home price reset explained
15:46 — Which markets crack first (Florida, Miami, blue-state Northeast)
17:10 — Mom-and-pop investors and fix-and-flips
17:49 — Advice for homebuyers: stay below the conforming limit
18:42 — AI & semiconductor stock volatility
19:15 — Agentic trading bots and market manipulation
20:35 — Precious metals: gold below 4,000, silver near 57
22:37 — PCE data, sticky inflation & the gold-silver case
23:13 — Crypto falling apart, MicroStrategy & BlackRock selling
24:33 — CME suing over perps (perpetual futures)
25:34 — The NYC rent freeze / Mamdani hot take
26:49 — Viewer mail: changing the definition of inflation
28:20 — Viewer mail: is the debasement trade over?
29:08 — Viewer mail: Annaly common vs. preferred
31:03 — What's ahead next week (plus World Cup talk)
32:46 — Wrap-up

Veteran market analyst Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company joins Julia for a mid-year macro check-in, and his message is decidedly cautious: after 42 years in finance, he believes the time has come to prioritize capital preservation over capital appreciation, especially in U.S. equities. Grandich lays out his bearish case across political, social, and economic lines—warning of a deeply divided Congress that couldn't manage another 2008-style crisis, a likely Democratic House sweep in the midterms that could derail Trump's agenda, runaway federal and state deficits, the looming threat of wealth and unrealized capital gains taxes, and the displacement of jobs by AI and robotics. He explains why he favors Asian equities over American ones, why he's cautiously back in gold (but not a "gold bug"), and why passive investing—once the market's biggest tailwind—could become its biggest risk. Closing with a vivid craps-table metaphor about a market overdue for a "seven," Grandich ultimately pivots to faith and family, reminding viewers that net worth shouldn't be confused with self-worth.

Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
https://x.com/PeterGrandich
https://petergrandich.com/
https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6

Timestamps:
00:00 — Welcome back & catching up with Peter Grandich
01:06 — Big-picture macro: "live chicken vs. dead duck"
06:28 — Midterms outlook & the political divide
10:54 — Echoes of 1929 and why this time is different
12:00 — State deficits, surcharges & "revenue enhancement"
13:11 — Taxes
17:30 — Congressional & presidential stock trading
20:20 — New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh & rate policy
22:59 — Inflation: is the 2% target dead?
25:07 — Wealth inequality & the jobs picture
28:18 — Allocation strategy: why "cookie cutter" fails
30:40 — Gold
32:00 — Spend less than you make
33:19 — Why look outside the U.S. market
34:00 — Passive investing: the market's biggest risk
38:38 — The craps table metaphor
41:32 — Parting thoughts: faith, family & "what good is it to gain the world?"

Peter Schiff warns the bubble is popping as crypto leads the decline, while the bond market faces another breakdown with the 10-year potentially breaking above 5%. He emphasizes inflation is a choice—all Fed chairs chose it, and Warsh will too despite tough talk, because the alternative is politically unacceptable. He reveals the May deficit surged 30% while interest expense jumped 44%, with annual interest payments now hitting $1.6 trillion and will be $2 trillion by next year. Schiff identifies Japan as a looming harbinger with 250% debt-to-GDP, yields climbing above 4%, and the yen collapsing below 160 with potential for another 30-50% decline. His end game thesis: the US dollar loses reserve currency status, US assets get repriced down, and he's positioning to "have all the chips" at the finish line. Gold's pullback from $5,600 to $4,200 is a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" move, while silver at $65 is headed to $200 and Bitcoin at $64,000 should be sold. GDP growth is an illusion created by faulty deflators that understate inflation; the economy hasn't really expanded, just become more expensive, and stagflationary depression is locked in.

Thank you to our sponsors:
Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:https://x.com/PeterSchiffhttps://www.youtube.com/@peterschiff

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome Peter Schiff
00:50 Air coming out of bubble
1:16 Markets too complacent on inflation risks
1:45 Warsh has a problem - Hike or no hike, both bad
3:36 Inflation is a choice - All Fed chairs chose it
5:11 Warsh will choose inflation despite tough talk
5:24 Bond market breakdown coming - 10-year to 5%, 30-year to 5.5-6%
7:42 May deficit up 30%, interest expense up 44%
8:13 Interest payments $1.6 trillion/year, will be $2 trillion next year
9:39 Government spending up 50% since COVID, taxes reduced
10:57 Inflation is hidden tax - Government prefers it
11:52 Iran war costs through inflation, not direct taxation
13:49 Wealth tax - Slippery slope, will hit middle class eventually
19:56 Japan crisis - Debt to GDP 250%, yen collapsing below 160
20:29 Japanese bond yields at 4% on 30-year, rising fast
21:45 Japan could sell $1 trillion in US treasuries
24:41 Japan harbinger for US crisis
24:54 Treasury Secretary Paulson says crisis inevitable
27:18 Gold warning sign - Pullback to $4,200 from $5,600 normal
29:24 Silver at $65, headed to $200
32:39 Stock market at highs but economy worse than Biden
36:56 GDP illusion - Deflator too low, just prices not growth
39:48 End game - Dollar won't be reserve currency
40:40 Playing for end game, wants all chips at finish
43:31 Contrarian predictions - Higher rates, higher oil, higher gold
44:30 Japan crisis first domino, then dollar next
45:01 Summary - Stagflation and end game thesis

Chris Whalen is back for The Wrap after his fishing trip in Maine, where he caught a 21-inch smallmouth bass! He's very positive on Kevin Warsh's "less is more" approach at the Fed—no forward guidance, likely removing the dot plot, and refocusing on letting the numbers speak for themselves rather than trying to control expectations through communication. Whalen argues the bond market has already delivered a rate hike on its own, and if he were Warsh, he'd wait and see how the Iran peace deal holds before making more moves, given that war inflation is transitory and external to Fed policy. He reveals the definition of inflation will likely be narrowed to minimize rate hikes and avoid tanking the economy, and he's watching a massive rebalancing from equities to bonds at record allocation levels. Whalen sold most of his AI stocks and locked in serious gains, but he's holding SpaceX as a long-term play given Elon's monopolies on space launch and global internet. He warns the AI bubble is going south with Mike Saylor and Bitcoin spiraling, sees gold and silver as a great entry point after being beaten down, and is adding to positions. He explains silver's manufacturing and technology demand while copper faces supply constraints. On Iran, Whalen argues the MOU doesn't solve underlying inflation drivers—diesel, fertilizer, energy ripple through the economy—so double-digit inflation is locked in with no Fed rate cuts coming. He's concerned about private credit festering with two-and-twenty fees still common, distressed debt exchanges now over 70% of defaults since 2022, and he likes Annaly as a mortgage REIT with government-insured assets and mortgage servicing rights providing protection. Whalen notes precious metals could still rise despite rate hikes because central banks will keep accumulating gold as reserve assets.
 
Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira858
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen
1:47 Warsh sets different tone - No forward guidance, likely no dot plots
3:33 Less is more approach - Fed was communicating too much
5:43 Bond market has already done the rate hike
6:50 War inflation is transitory - External factor Fed can't control
7:19 Definition of inflation will be adjusted/narrowed
9:10 Bond market doing tightening, not Fed funds rate
10:34 Rebalancing from equities to bonds at record levels
11:50 Sold most AI stocks, took profits, holding SpaceX
12:07 SpaceX monopoly on space/internet - Long term play
13:57 AI trade, Bitcoin
15:57 Gold/silver beaten up but good entry, adding positions
17:02 Silver manufacturing and technology demand
17:49 Copper supply/demand - Not enough copper globally
19:32 Iran MOU doesn't solve underlying issues
21:45 Double-digit inflation locked in - Diesel, fertilizer ripple
22:34 Fed can't fix war-driven inflation
23:52 No rate cuts coming - Business banking on cuts won't get them
24:48 Private credit festering problem - Two and twenty fees
26:16 Distressed debt exchanges over 70% of defaults
29:27 Annaly - Mortgage REIT with government insured assets
30:00 Precious metals could rise despite rate hikes - Central banks buying
31:43 Precious metals dollar strength question
32:07 Next week