The Currency Exchange - An FX Podcast by NatWest

Markets may look calm, but beneath the surface FX risks are building. In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson unpack sterling’s surprising resilience, the political and fiscal risks waiting in the autumn, why the dollar’s rally may be running out of fresh fuel, and what Japan’s tolerance of yen weakness could signal for global markets. 
They discuss:
Why sterling continues to defy bearish expectations, helped by yield support, possible safe-haven flows and renewed UK equity inflows.
How UK politics, fiscal rules and gilt supply could become bigger risks for sterling later in the year.
Why French political risk is worth watching, even if markets are not fully pricing it yet.
How Middle East tensions and oil prices are feeding into dollar positioning and broader risk sentiment.
Why the dollar has stayed resilient despite crowded positioning, stronger US data and shifting Fed expectations.
Why NatWest expects a slower, later dollar decline through the second half of the year.
What the lack of confirmed Japanese FX intervention may reveal about official tolerance for yen weakness.
Why Japan’s fiscal and monetary mix remains a major headwind for the yen.
Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.
This episode was recorded on 9 July 2026.
For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week on Currency Exchange, the team discusses the market implications of the first Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, the outlook for the US dollar following a hawkish shift in Fed expectations, the Bank of Japan’s widely anticipated rate hike, and growing concerns about potential Japanese FX intervention.
Key takeaways
* The first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh was interpreted as hawkish, largely because Warsh declined to counterbalance a more hawkish committee message. 
* The FOMC dot plot surprised markets, with half of participating members projecting rate hikes in 2026 and several favouring multiple increases.
* NatWest no longer expects Fed rate cuts this year, providing near-term support for the US dollar, although markets may still be overpricing tightening risks.
* The Bank of Japan’s rate hike to 1.0% was fully anticipated and had little market impact, partly due to Governor Ueda’s absence and limited forward guidance.
* Japanese intervention risks remain elevated as USD/JPY stays near multi-decade highs, but Japan’s accommodative fiscal and monetary policy mix continues to argue for underlying yen weakness.
 
Host: Eimear Daly (Emerging Markets Macro Strategist)
Guest: Brian Daingerfield (Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy)
 
You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
This episode was recorded on 18 June 2026.
For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this week’s episode of Currency Exchange, host Brian Dangerfield is joined by Paul Robson, to discuss the major themes driving foreign exchange markets. The conversation covers the ECB’s latest decision, upcoming meetings from the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan, and the implications for the euro, pound, dollar and yen.
 
Key topics:
 
* FX markets remain remarkably calm despite an intense period of central bank and geopolitical risk.
* The ECB remains cautious and highly dependent on developments in energy markets.
* The Bank of England is unlikely to act next week but remains under pressure from persistent inflation concerns.
* The first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh could mark an important shift in communication strategy.
* Dollar strength has been supported by better US data, but expectations may now be running ahead of reality.
* The Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates, but markets remain focused on whether policymakers are willing to defend the yen more aggressively.
 
 
You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
 
This episode was recorded on 11 June 2026.
 
For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
 
Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week on Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield step back from the day-to-day market headlines to focus on what global FX clients are thinking about the US dollar, geopolitical risk and the broader macro outlook.
Against a backdrop of rapidly shifting developments in the Middle East, the discussion explores why conviction across FX markets remains unusually low, how investors are positioning across G10 currencies, and what themes are emerging in China and broader emerging markets.
Key themes discussed
FX markets: Low conviction and headline-driven trading
Brian Dangerfield explains why fast-moving geopolitical developments are preventing investors from taking strong directional positions in FX, despite large moves in rates and commodities markets.
Dollar outlook: Fed on hold versus global tightening
How markets increasingly expect the Fed to remain sidelined while other central banks continue tightening policy, potentially weighing on the dollar over time.
G10 FX: Sterling, yen and commodity currencies
Sterling continues to outperform expectations, why intervention risk is dominating yen positioning, and why investors still favour the Australian dollar despite recent volatility.
China and EM: The rise of high-value manufacturing
China’s economic transition toward AI and advanced manufacturing is reshaping profit growth, inflation dynamics and currency policy expectations.
 
You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
This episode was recorded on 28 May 2026.
For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week on The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Aditya Sharma explore the geopolitical and macroeconomic developments shaping global FX markets. The discussion focuses on Chinese diplomacy following President Xi Jinping’s meetings with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the implications for China-US relations, and the broader impact of energy market disruptions on Asian currencies.
The episode also examines the prospect of Chinese stimulus, and the growing pressure across emerging Asian FX markets including the Indonesian rupiah, Korean won and Indian rupee.
 This episode was recorded on 21 May 2026.
 For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html