Saxo Market Call

Today, a look back at another dicey day for risk sentiment as global bond yields continued to ratchet higher as we head into month-end and quarter-end with possible portfolio rebalancing in the mix after a remarkable period for fixed income. Elsewhere, our overall global risk indicator is under the most pressure since the Liberation Day episode in the spring of 2025, even if equity market sentiment remains relatively stable. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Michael Every's latest global macro piece:  A great deal of concern. 

Michael Kao makes a great point on the "rate sensitive narrative" not adding up.

Alexander Stahel claims Hormuz Strait flows are 94% of normal. So what is the oil price doing here still? To be fair, he still points out some concerns.

Izabella Kaminska on how AI assistants might contribute to a rise in funding costs for banks.

FTAlphaville covers US Treasury Secretary Bessent's hire of David Zervos, recycling the latter's own comments on markets.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today - a look at a fresh spike in crude oil and bond yields spooking risk sentiment and gold bugs as we look at a busy week ahead on the macro calendar, especially for US data, but also an historic moment awaits the UK in tomorrow's speech from PM Burnham. The stakes are high for gilts and sterling. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Again, here is the link from Friday to the fascinating article about the possible reason for the end of the Bronze Age (also might be what took out Troy rather than Odysseus and his gang in the Trojan horse, by the way) - the spread of iron weapons, which "democratized violence" As well as whether (we ardently hope not) there is a parallel of a kind in our age in the form of drone technology.

FTAlphaville article covers whether enough data centers will be built (or importantly to be plugged in to the power grid) to house all of the GPU's and other hardware that is supposedly set to be produced over the next handful of years.

The Big Read in the FT today is on AI hyperscaler debt and how it is transforming debt markets globally.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a run through the outlook for crude oil with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen as we face a key week ahead, given Iran's bid for a 7-day negotiation window with the US. More with Ole on natural gas, the El Niño status and impacts and gold. Elsewhere, a run through the macro and rates and the week ahead, together with interesting single stocks stories driving the market action yesterday. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Michael Every on the latest Macrovoices podcast, with a bit more granularity and bias on what may happen next than usual on Iran and Ukraine/Russia. 

John's latest The FX Trader piece with thoughts on USDJPY and much more.

FT focus piece on quantum computing and whether there is a path to profit for the technology.

FT on UK & German exposure to Chinese economy, but leaving out in the title that the US is way up there with these two economies as well.

FTAlphaville with a provocative headline: SpaceX pivots away from space. Whoa.

TypeSafe AI has a new and cheaper AI model called Jev that is supposedly more efficient for software development than the tools from Anthropic and OpenAI and is getting massive attention.

For the historians: was it iron that triggered the Bronze Age collapse because iron was a weapon of mass decentralization? Super interesting! 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we wonder how long markets can take any extension of the latest rather brutal sell-off in global bonds, which have taken the entire US yield curve from 5-years and out to new post-global financial crisis highs. Also, a look at the macro and FX reaction to bond market developments, the risk to macro trades if intervention is incoming at some point, and the three central bank meetings this morning. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

FTAlphaville passed along an archived The Verge article on Meta's latest big scramble to diversify its business model away from over-reliance on its core "social media" platforms with Muse and now the Muse Charm.

Should we just stop? (Unplug from the social media and influencer rate race that no longer connects us in meaningful ways?). We probably should, but will we and how?

Meanwhile, the AI data centre buildout is the largest single investment boom ever, as a percent of GDP, than the canal building, railroad and electrification infrastructure buildouts combined.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today - a look at how narrow the advance is in the US equity market that is taking the main indices close to their record highs and how this rhymes with past less-than-promising outcomes.. As well, we encourage market participants to keep bond yields and geopolitical headline risks on the radar - particularly for Europe if Trump announces an embargo on exporting diesel. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Some believe that Trump shouldn't and even really shouldn't announce a diesel export embargo 

Beware bond holders and savers! Russell Napier is a must-listen on a long-form podcast on the coming financial repression as we move to build what must be built and do so while keeping governments funded.

A Substack post on China's AI scene - very thorough.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.