Linear Digressions

When a language model tells you it's absolutely certain, is it actually more likely to be right? Kaitlyn Zhou's research says: not necessarily — sometimes confident phrasing correlates with *worse* accuracy, echoing a very human Dunning-Kruger effect. In this conversation, Kaitlyn (soon an assistant professor at Cornell) walks through why LLMs talk this way in the first place — tracing the tendency back through training data and the RLHF annotation process, where it turns out humans don't love confidence so much as they punish uncertainty — and what that does to the person on the other end of the chat window, who turns out to rely on confident (and even flatly-stated) answers far more than they should. We also get into her newer work on voice cloning, and how a cloned voice can sound more "native" and more trustworthy than the real one it's based on.

Reasoning models don't just answer your question — they *think out loud* first. In this episode we dig into the class of AI models that generate intermediate chains of thought before arriving at a final answer, exploring how the internal reasoning process works. Are these models genuinely "thinking," or is something else going on under the hood?

This week we’re covering model distillation: the technique of using a large "teacher" model's outputs to train a smaller, cheaper "student" model that mimics it. They cover the two big reasons labs do this — making lighter, faster, more focused models for specific tasks, and the more contentious use case of effectively copying a rival's flagship model by hammering its API with questions (with a callback to the old Bing/Google search controversy). They also get into why it's so hard to prove distillation happened, why some models occasionally introduce themselves as "Claude," and a surprisingly old idea: a 2015 paper by Geoffrey Hinton, Jeff Dean, and Oriol Vinyals on distilling knowledge using the full probability distribution over a model's outputs — not just its single most likely answer — and what that "soft label" approach captures about how a model relates concepts to each other.

What happens when a Stanford linguistics professor turns his attention to AI chatbots — and the surprisingly invisible ways humans misunderstand them? Chris Potts joins the show to unpack the hidden failure modes in how we interact with AI, what it really means to become a more fluent user, and why these language-wielding systems are genuinely alien in ways we're only beginning to reckon with. His perspective sits at a rare intersection of linguistics, cognition, and machine learning — and it shows.

Still summer break: back next week by Katie Malone