Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

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Over the past year, something has been happening inside the Russian military that received very little attention but that will have - and is already having - pretty significant consequences. While the world has been focused on casualty numbers and frontline movements, Russia has been building an entirely new kind of army - one based on drones, autonomous weapons, and AI. It has been pouring enormous resources into it - and it's not a project for some distant future - it's already being widely used by Russia in Ukraine right now and it’s already changing how the Russian military fights a war. And even more importantly, it’s putting Russia way ahead of most NATO members in ways that should be setting off alarm bells in European capitals - but largely isn't. 

My guest today is Kateryna Bondar, a fellow at the CSIS Wadwhani AI Center who just wrote a major new report on exactly this - detailing how Russia is building this new military ecosystem, how far it's gotten, what will be the consequences of and how The West is mostly failing to notice and react to it.

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This is a conversation with Jack Watling, a Senior Research Fellow at RUSI and one of the most brilliant defence analysts in Europe. He is the author of Statecraft — a book about how the rules of global powers have radically changed over the last decade and what the West needs to do to survive what’s coming next.

We get into why a beaten-down and much weaker Iran may end up coming out of its current war with the much more powerful United States in a stronger position than before, and what that says about American power. We talk about Taiwan, and why Jack's assessment of what's coming there is much darker than what you usually hear. We talk into Russia and Ukraine — why the West has consistently misunderstood about Moscow’s behavior and what are the costs of that, and why 2026 is the inflection point of the war and where will we go next - and much more.

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This is a conversation with Michael McFaul, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia and a special advisor on Russia to president Obama, professor of international relations at Stanford University and one of the most respected American experts on foreign policy and geopolitics. He is someone that I would call a typical transatlanticist - someone who spent his whole career working on build a strong alliance with Europe, promoting democracy abroad and deterring autocratic adversarial regimes - and so it’s really interesting to talk at a time when both US foreign policy and the world looks very very different.

And so we talk about his thoughts on the war with Iran, whether it will end up as a strategic defeat for the United States and how it will change America’s standing and influence around the world. About the current crisis in the relations between Europe and the U.S., Trump’s desire to leave NATO, whether it's going to happen and whether it wouldn't be for the best in the end. And about the fight between autocracies and democracies that he writes about in his new book and how this fight changes if the world’s leading democracy doesn't seem that sure on which side it actually is and what it means for the rest of us - and much more.

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For over 4 years, Russia has been fighting its full scale war in Ukraine and despite all its efforts it’s not particularly successful at it. But for much longer than that, Russia has been fighting a second war in parallel, one that gets far less attention but which is arguably far, far more successful. It's the war for hearts and minds: in Europe, in Ukraine and across the Global South  - and while it might seem abstract, it’s very much real and it’s bringing Russia very real benefits - often enabling it to win battles without needing to fight a single shot. 

To understand how that war is being fought - and why is the West on the backfoot - I'm talking to Janis Sarts, the Director of NATO's Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence. This is the organisation that sits at the heart of NATO's efforts to understand and counter Russian information warfare, which makes Sarts one of the most informed people in the world on how this domain actually works.

We get into why Russia is so effective at this despite being outmatched in almost every other domain, why Western governments talk about the threat constantly but do so little to counter it, and what it would actually take to fight back - including the lessons from Ukraine, which has done something no Western country has managed: take the information fight directly to Russia.

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This is a conversation with John Bolton - a former National Security Advisor to Donald Trump in his first administration, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and one of the most hawkish public figures in the U.S. foreign policy establishment. 

I wanted to talk with John about the war with Iran because he is in an absolutely unique position. He’s someone who has been long publicly advocating for a policy of a regime change in Iran and who during his time in the White House tried to make it a reality - he is in many ways the ultimate Iran hawk. But unlike almost all the other Iran hawks and despite the fact that this could be seen as the realization of his lifetime goal, he is fiercely critical of the current war with Iran and of how it has been planned and executed. 

And so we talk about why Bolton thinks this war is heading for failure, why was there such a lack of planning and strategic thinking, whether Trump is already looking for the exit even with the Strait of Hormuz still closed - and what that would mean for America's standing in the world - and why, the United States might very likely end up in a much worse position than before the war started.