Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski

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Ian Cassel is the founder of MicroCapClub and CIO of Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management, specializing in underfollowed public companies led by exceptional owner-operators — pairing rigorous, boots-on-the-ground research with the patience to hold rare compounding businesses through volatility. He became a full-time private investor at 28 and has spent his career hunting for undiscovered small public companies, and the founders who run them, before Wall Street ever notices. Today, we discuss his new book, The Stock Picker: How to Develop the Mindset, Temperament, and Strategy to Outperform Wall Street.
Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/
Ian Cassel didn’t take the conventional path into investing — he skipped it entirely. Raised in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania’s blue-collar, Amish-adjacent farm country, Cassel became a full-time private investor at 28, guided for years by a single line he wrote on a napkin at 22: “10K and two ten baggers equal millionaire.” It took six years to make it true.
That patience defines everything Cassel does now as founder of MicroCapClub and CIO of Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management. He makes the case for microcaps as one of the market’s last true structural edges — citing research showing 87% of stocks that returned 10x or more over the past decade started as microcaps, and 91% of those were already profitable businesses, not speculative stories. Institutions, he argues, are locked out not by risk but by illiquidity itself.
Cassel also opens up about the mentors who shaped him, including a message-board trader named Skip who taught him that a stock is “a buy or a sell,” never a hold — and that if you’re not willing to put your money where your mouth is, you should keep quiet. He’s candid, too, about his own losing streaks, the temptation to double down on losing positions, and a Porsche-and-Rolex purchase he now looks back on with some embarrassment.
The conversation closes on something bigger than markets: Cassel’s belief that “the secret to compounding” isn’t just financial — it’s showing up, present, for the people you love, today, rather than waiting for some future payoff.
The book: The Stock Picker: How to Develop the Mindset, Temperament, and Strategy to Outperform Wall Street.

Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

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Today I'm joined by two economists who spent a decade inside a room most of us will never see — the basement of the U.S. Treasury Department — building the first database that ever linked confidential tax records to the individual owners of America's private businesses.
Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/Owen Zidar teaches at Princeton, Eric Zwick teaches at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and together they've written a book that completely reframed how I think about wealth in this country: The Everywhere Millionaire.
Their argument, backed by data nobody had ever assembled before, is that America's real fortune isn't sitting with the Forbes 400 on the coasts — it's sitting with three million "ordinary" business owners: car dealers, dental practices, gutter manufacturers, hiding in plain sight in nearly every town in the country. They define an "everywhere millionaire" as a private business owner worth $5 million or more, and collectively, these three million households hold thirteen times the wealth of the Forbes 400.
We trace the hidden engine behind that wealth, and they share story after story of the individuals who built it. We go beyond the economic power of this group into the political influence it quietly carries too.
Their book is eye-opening and genuinely inspiring. It makes the case that the American Dream is very much alive, and that there are far more paths to it than most of us realize. Some readers may even find themselves seeing, for the first time, that they're not alone — that they're part of a much larger, wealthier, more established group than the billionaires who steal all the spotlight. And maybe that's exactly where they want to be: financially successful, politically influential, yet comfortably out of sight, living among the rest of us.

Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

My guest today is Jared Dillian—former Lehman Brothers index-arbitrage and ETF trader, founder of the 18-year-old professional market letter The Daily Dirtnap, registered CTA, author of seven books, and an unusually multidimensional market thinker whose work joins macro trading, practical personal finance, risk control, writing, mental health, and electronic music.
Today, are we talking about his new book The Awesome Portfolio, a simple, stress-free approach to investing.
Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/Jared unpacks the origin of The Awesome Portfolio — born from testing model portfolios with a subscriber-turned-advisor, later validated by Nick Maggiulli's own optimization research.
Core thesis: "to make people make stupid decisions" is, in Jared's telling, the whole purpose of volatility — Vanguard's own data shows investors rarely capture the returns their funds actually post.
Vanguard's "advisor alpha": simply having someone stop you from trading boosts returns by 3%. But Jared argues even a good advisor can't erase the stress of a 50% drawdown.
The Awesome Portfolio's worst-ever year: down 12%, versus an 89% max drawdown for the S&P since 1929. "Drawdowns affect psychology."
The "life hedge": your job and the market tend to move together, amplifying your life's volatility. The ideal hedge would move opposite — nothing fully does.
Risk of ruin, via a $300M Powerball thought experiment: "wealthy people think about the risk of ruin and middle-class people don't."
Reflexivity: the top 7 stocks make up 35% of the index, so buying the index means buying concentration.
The five 20% slices — stocks, bonds, gold, cash, real estate — rebalanced once a year, deliberately simple.
Why crypto got cut: even a small Bitcoin allocation would dominate investor attention and undercut the whole stress-free premise.
Stress-tested against a literal nuclear war, Jared still can't find a scenario where all five assets fail together.
Closing candor: "Books succeed when they tell people things they already believe" — which is why he expects pushback, not a bestseller.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

My guest today is Professor Paul Johnson, a veteran value investor, long-time Columbia and Fordham professor, and co-author of The Enduring Value of Roger Murray, Pitch the Perfect Investment, and The Gorilla Game. He's taught in the same value investing tradition that runs from Benjamin Graham through Roger Murray, and he brings both a practitioner's and a historian's eye to our conversation today.
02:10 – Origin story: a teenage bet on a gold penny stock turned $250 into $2,500 and hooked Paul on markets with "no physical labor."
08:46 – Debut theory: the '73–'74 crash plus the rise of relative performance permanently reshaped investing after Graham.
10:54 – Buffett's 1991 letter: value and growth investing are "basically the same thing" — the label "value investing" is redundant.
24:54 – Correction for the record: David Dodd, not Murray, taught Security Analysis until 1961.
27:04 – Murray's core contribution: rigor and discipline — illustrated by the Leon Cooperman "400-number table" story.
33:26 – The magnet metaphor: intrinsic value pulls price toward it over time, though price can overshoot or undershoot.
42:28 – Paul pushes back on his own construct: ignoring the future still means betting value stays stable.
47:39 – Bruce Greenwald's addition: sustainable competitive advantage, and the 1997 "Competitive Advantage Period" paper with Mauboussin.
51:53 – Why growth concentrates in mega-caps: scale, internet infrastructure, and the "optionality" to acquire threats early.
58:45 – Framing device: "What if AI is just a normal disruptive technology?" — like electricity or the internal combustion engine.
01:16:14 – "I say the key to investment" — a superior value estimate plus the ability to hold through volatility.
01:17:33 – A Buffett-adjacent friend rode $10K to $1B because he "didn't want to disappoint Warren."

Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Bob Robotti, founder and CIO of Robotti & Company, joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explain why bottom-up value investing may be entering one of its best opportunity sets in decades. They discuss AI and reindustrialization, inflation and interest rates, passive investing, capital cycles, private equity, long-term ownership, and why today’s neglected industrial businesses may offer opportunities that the market is missing.
I join Matt Zeigler for one more special episode of Excess Returns. I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from both Matt and Jack. Don’t miss it! And follow their work; links below.
Bob Robotti on X
https://x.com/BobRobotti
Robotti & Company
https://www.robotti.com
Topics covered
How Bob finds misunderstood businesses with latent earnings power

Why his “grassroots macro” process starts with company-level supply and demand

How AI spending is increasing demand for energy, copper, aluminum, cement and other physical assets

Why North America’s natural gas advantage could support a long-term reindustrialization cycle

Why persistent inflation could force higher interest rates and lower valuation multiples

Why no competitive moat is permanent, even for today’s dominant technology companies

How passive investing and shorter time horizons can create opportunities for fundamental stock pickers

Why prolonged downturns can improve industry economics through consolidation and reduced capacity

Why Bob views himself as an active owner rather than an activist investor

Why he is skeptical of today’s private equity model and its expansion into retirement portfolios

The NewMarket investment that taught him the cost of selling a great business too early

Why he thinks individual company research can outperform indexing over the next decade

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.