Reuters Morning Bid

Europe's ASML raises its full-year revenue forecast, steadying sentiment around AI infrastructure spending after IBM logged its worst single-day stock drop on record. U.S. core CPI posts its first monthly decline in over six years, easing pressure on the Fed. And volatile markets and a busy IPO pipeline hand the big banks a bumper quarter.

Today’s recommended read: China's latest 'shock', German auto pain and the euro/yuan pressure cooker, Mike Dolan

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A fresh escalation in the Gulf, with Iranian missile attacks on shipping and a U.S. blockade declaration, pushes oil sharply higher and overshadows today's U.S. inflation report. Headline CPI had been forecast to fall below 4%, but with oil re-accelerating, that backward-looking relief may already feel like a moot point. Fed Governor Christopher Waller says core inflation is simply "too high," and markets are now pricing almost a 50% chance of a rate hike as soon as this month. Plus, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces Congress for the first time later today.

Today’s recommended read: China blunted Iran war oil shock, but can it do the same for fuels?, Clyde Russell

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest.

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Oil prices surge but traders aren't panicking yet as U.S.-Iran strikes escalate and Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz is closed - even as U.S. Central Command says around 20 ships got through in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, June CPI data drops Tuesday and big bank earnings kick off a week that will test soaring tech valuations.

Today’s recommended read: Cheap drones turn energy into the global economy's weak spot, Ron Bousso

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest.

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SK Hynix hits the Nasdaq today, but can it close the valuation gap with Micron? Also, Japan's Finance Ministry tells its $1.81 trillion pension fund to stop sending money abroad, rattling the yen and Japanese bonds. And Wall Street braces for a brutal Tuesday, with five of the six biggest U.S. banks reporting on the same day.

Today’s recommended read: From curiosity to cornerstone - how batteries went mainstream, Gavin Maguire

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest.

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Oil prices jump after President Trump says the U.S. memorandum of understanding with Iran is "over," while chip stocks see a brief Asia-session rally that quickly fades. And the June Fed minutes signal a divided central bank that's in no rush to act on inflation.

Today’s recommended read: Forget TACO. Trump's best Mexican food acronym is TAMALES, Clyde Russell

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest.

Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices.

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