State of Play

President Trump said the Cuban government will fall “pretty soon” and “it may not be a friendly takeover.” Ryan Berg and Carrie Filipetti join Will to discuss President Trump’s goals in Cuba, his range of options, and the risks and benefits of regime change. 

“Secretary of State Marco Rubio with John Micklethwait of Bloomberg News,” U.S. Department of State, February 14, 2026. 

Ryan Berg et al. “China’s Intelligence Footprint in Cuba: New Evidence and Implications for U.S. Security,” CSIS, December 6, 2024.

To discuss the risks of regime change in Iran, the lessons to draw from other regime change efforts in the Middle East and beyond, and to outline what the United States can do now to ensure a positive outcome in Iran, Jon Alterman, Daniel Byman, and Mona Yacoubian joined Will Todman on a live episode of State of Play.

Jon Alterman, "Why Decapitation Will Not Solve the United States’ Iran Problem," CSIS, March 3, 2026.

Daniel Byman, "6 Questions About Operation Epic Fury," Foreign Policy, February 28, 2026.

Mona Yacoubian and Samuel Zabin, "If Compute is the New Oil, War in the Gulf Significantly Raises the Stakes," CSIS, February 27, 2026.

President Trump's economic strategy in SE Asia faces new questions after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs. Greg Poling and Henrietta Levin join Will to discuss how SE Asian states are engaging with the Trump administration and navigating U.S.-China competition in the region.

Japhet Quitzon and Greg Poling, "Lessons from the Manila Strategy Forum," CSIS, February 25, 2026.

Henrietta Levin, Greg Poling, et al. "State of Play: The Global Impact of the SCOTUS Decision on IEEPA Tariffs," CSIS, February 20, 2026.

Henrietta Levin, "The U.S.-Vietnam Trade Deal Makes No Sense" Foreign Policy, July 16, 2025.

Max Bergmann shares his key observations about transatlantic relations after attending the Munich Security Conference. He discusses how European leaders reacted to Secretary Rubio’s speech, the U.S. strategy for Europe, and the ongoing challenges of shifting the defense burden from the United States to Europe. 

Max Bergmann, “How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America,” (video) CSIS, November 5, 2025. 

Max Bergmann and Otto Svendsen, “How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America,” (report) CSIS, October 8, 2025.

Technological advances are not just about economics, but also power and leverage. Mark Dallas and Ilaria Mazzocco join Will to explore the geopolitical aspect of tech competition. They discuss each state's key technological advantages, what geopolitical power they bring them, and how the United States should compete better.

"Tech Edge: A Living Playbook for America’s Technology Long Game," CSIS, January 20, 2026.

"America's Technology Long Game for Competing with China," CSIS Events, January 28, 2026.