In this fascinating interview with nuclear expert Ankit Panda we discuss the escalating conflict following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and its implications for global nuclear deterrence. He argues that Iran's strategy appears aimed at regionalizing the conflict across the Gulf to generate diplomatic pressure, while questioning the credibility of claims about Iran's imminent nuclear weapons capability.
We discussed:
How the succession to Ayatollah Khamenei's more hardline son could alter Iran's longstanding restraint on both missile ranges and nuclear weaponization.
The troubling lessons other nations (particularly U.S. adversaries like North Korea) may draw from Iran's fate (nuclear weapons provide the ultimate deterrent against regime change).
How both adversarial and allied proliferation dynamics are re-surging in ways unseen since the Cold War, with countries from Seoul to Stockholm reconsidering their nuclear postures.
Panda critiques last year's bombing campaign as ultimately counterproductive to nonproliferation goals, leaving 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium unaccounted for and eliminating IAEA verification continuity.
Despite the current trajectory, Panda maintains that any sustainable resolution to Iran's nuclear program will require diplomatic engagement—though achieving that will prove extraordinarily difficult given how recent events have validated North Korea's narrative about the risks of cooperation with the West.
Bio:
Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on nuclear strategy, escalation, missiles and missile defense, space security, and US alliances. He is the author of Kim Jong Un and the Bomb: Survival and Deterrence in North Korea and Indo-Pacific Missile Arsenals: Avoiding Spirals and Mitigating Risks, and his forthcoming book is The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon.
His work has appeared in outlets including the New York Times, the Economist, the Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and he serves as editor-at-large at The Diplomat, where he hosts the Asia Geopolitics podcast.
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