Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch

Franz-Stefan Gady just played the Russian Chief of General Staff in a German war game — and won. He joins Dmitri Alperovitch to explain how he manufactured a NATO crisis in the summer of 2026, why the U.S. is built for the wrong war over Taiwan, and how Ukraine quietly turned its fortunes around heading into 2026.

In this episode:

How Russia could beat NATO without firing on it. Inside the Bundeswehr war game where Gady cut off the Baltics with a "humanitarian corridor" into Lithuania, an information-warfare campaign that split European politics, and nuclear saber-rattling aimed at Berlin — and his unsettling conclusion that Russia may not need a ground invasion at all.

A war of attrition over Taiwan. Why sinking China's invasion fleet — the celebrated "hellscape" — is the easy part, and what happens on "day after" once U.S. precision munitions run dry and Xi refuses to go home. Alperovitch and Gady debate whether denial alone wins anything, and how a conflict neither side can decisively win punishes whoever has the weaker defense-industrial base.

How Ukraine turned the tide. Stabilized manpower, a cleaner chain of command, a real edge in unmanned warfare (helped by Starlink finally going dark for Russian units), and a new mid and long-range strike advantage — set against the relentless Donbas grind and the debate over whether drones have killed maneuver warfare or just split the sky in two.

00:00 Introduction

00:58 How Russia Could Defeat NATO: A War Game

07:42 Potential Russian Air Campaign Against Europe

09:48 Result of the Russia-NATO War Game

13:13 German Brigade in Lithuania: Obstacle for Russia?

15:34 Can Russia Achieve Strategic Surprise?

17:10 How to Defend the Baltics

24:04 NATO's Deficiencies in Ballistic Missiles

27:28 US-China Conflict: Could It Turn Into a War of Attrition?

29:35 Maritime vs. Land Warfare: The Taiwan Dilemma

35:10 What Happens After the PLA Fleet is Sunk?

40:48 Ukrainian Military Successes in 2026

48:15 Are Conditions Right for the Return of Maneuver Warfare?

49:36 Splitting the Air Space: High and Low Altitude Air Superiority

Three weeks into the US-Israel war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed — and reopening it may be far harder and slower than many may realize. Dmitri Alperovitch talks to RADM Mark Montgomery (Ret.), who has transited the strait 25+ times and lays out what it will actually take, why Kharg Island is a distraction, and the possible uncomfortable timeline for return to normalcy.

00:00 Introduction

01:09 Threat Environment in the Strait of Hormuz

03:37 Military Strategies for Reopening the Strait

05:19 Cruise Missile Threat

11:43 Tackling the Mine Problem

19:57 Convoy Operations in the Persian Gulf

26:43 Kharg Island

31:41 How long to return of normal traffic in the Gulf?

36:14 The Endgame 42:20 The Houthi problem

Dmitri Alperovitch and Silverado trade experts Sarah Stewart and John Corrigan examine the implications of the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on Trump's reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs. They explore the stakes of this constitutional challenge, including whether the government might have to refund the substantial tariff revenues already collected and how the administration could respond should the Court rule against them.
 
00:00 Introduction
 
02:16 Types of Tariffs Currently in Place
 
12:13 Supreme Court Timeline and the Issue of Refunds
 
14:33 Alternative Tariff Options
 
22:14 A New Weapon for the Trump Administration: Section 338 Tariffs
 
31:14 Back to the Future With an Old Tool: Section 421 Tariffs
 
38:14 Why Countries Shouldn't Rush to Celebrate Potential End of IAEPA Tariffs

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sarah Stewart, CEO at Silverado and former senior US trade negotiator, about the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. They discuss the details of the agreement reached and why it is a temporary trade truce at best.

00:00 Introduction

01:13 US Objectives for the Trump-Xi Meeting

08:43 The Rare Earths Truce

11:29 A Temporary Truce, Not a Deal

12:31 China's Historical Record of Delivering on Their Commitments

16:11 Why This Truce Is Unlikely to Last a Year

17:39 Deals With the Rest of the World

18:45 Strategic Implications of the Malaysia Trade Deal

20:27 No Concessions on AI Chips Export

Is Russia close to an economic collapse? Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Chris Weafer, an expert on the Russian economy, to assess how long the Kremlin can keep this high wire act going.

 

00:00 Introduction

01:17 Current State of the Russian Economy

10:02 Budget Challenges and Military Spending

19:29 Impact of Oil Prices and Sanctions

30:10 Economic Headwinds

32:20 Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries