The Vertical Space

Libby Bahat returns to The Vertical Space. Last time we talked to him about building an airspace for drones in peacetime. This time he's the regulator who decides whether a 777 full of people lands in a country under missile fire. As Head of the Aerial Infrastructure Department at the Israel Civil Aviation Authority, Libby is one of a small number of people anywhere who has had to build a quantitative framework, debris models, interception zones, penetration probabilities, that lets a civil aviation authority make its own war risk call. Most regulators don't have to do this. Israel does, and Libby is the guy.
We spent most of the conversation not on the war but on the judgment underneath it: where the numbers actually come from, how wide the error bars really are, the levers a CAA actually controls, the friendly-fire failure mode etc. Libby was honest about what he wishes he had ("I wish I had a criteria, like an engineer, very specific numbers") and about what he doesn't get to have. It's a rare look at how a serious regulator reasons when the only data point that would prove him wrong is the one he's organized his entire career to never see.

We sat down with Mike Stengel of AeroDynamic Advisory to discuss what the US-Iran conflict is doing to aviation. The Middle East moves about 20% of global crude, and with the Strait of Hormuz closed and Gulf refining capacity damaged, jet fuel stocks in Asia-Pacific and Europe are drawing down while crack spreads widen in ways hedging contracts don't cover. Mike explains why US shale isn't the easy substitute, why Spirit just liquidated and JetBlue looks fragile, and why Delta's once-mocked Monroe refinery acquisition suddenly looks prescient.

The bigger question we get into is whether this is a temporary pricing event or a more permanent regime change? For the first time in decades, commercial, military, and business aviation are all riding supply-constrained tailwinds at once, but the industry spent 30 years optimizing for cheap energy and stable airspace. We dig into what fragility looks like when those assumptions break, aging fleets, narrowing corridors between unusable Middle East and Russian airspace, what the conflict is doing for SAF, and where the next contrarian bet might come from.

Admiral Phil Kenul spent decades flying NOAA aircraft into some of the most dangerous weather on earth, including multiple seasons as a P-3 Orion hurricane hunter, before transitioning into the world of UAS standards, where he now serves as Vice Chair of ASTM Committee F38. That path gives him a perspective on unmanned aviation that most people in the industry don't have. He's been the guy in the cockpit, the program manager trying to replace the cockpit with a Global Hawk, and now the person writing the standards that determine whether any of this scales commercially.
His take on the industry is refreshing. Technology, he argues, is no longer what's holding the drone industry back. Operations, regulatory approvals, and integration with legacy airspace systems are. He sees Part 108 as a genuine inflection point, one that will finally let operators fly by regulations and industry consensus standards rather than one-off waivers. But he's equally clear that getting there will take longer and cost more than most people expect, and that when the dust settles, success will go to the best operators, not the best aircraft.

In this episode we sit down with Alex List, CEO and founder of FlyShirley, a startup building an AI copilot for the cockpit. Alex walks through what AI in aviation actually looks like today: the practical reality of a ground-based language model accessed via iPad helping pilots handle strategic, non-time-critical tasks like looking up service bulletins mid-flight, transcribing ATC clearances, finding alternates, and synthesizing information that would otherwise require a pilot to dig through a POH while managing weather and workload. He's candid about where the technology still falls short and articulates a clear architectural thesis: frontier intelligence lives on the ground, state management lives on the device, and a 56-kilobit connection is all you need in between.
The conversation broadens into the harder questions facing anyone building in this space: how do you design for pilot augmentation without creating dependency? How do you handle liability for an advisory system that is occasionally wrong? And how do you build a defensible business in a market that is, honestly, pretty small? Alex is refreshingly honest about the GA market math and where the real opportunity lies. The hosts bring their own investor and operator lens to the discussion, flagging the classic failure modes of aviation startups.

In this episode we reconnect with Robert Rose, CEO of Reliable Robotics, fresh off his testimony before Congress on the state of advanced air mobility. Robert shares what most people misunderstand about FAA certification, i.e. that the regulator isn't there to coach you through it, they're just calling balls and strikes. We explore why Reliable has spent eight years building autonomous systems within existing regulations rather than waiting for new rules, how they've convinced the FAA that zero-visibility automated landing standards can scale from wide-body jets down to Cessna Caravans, and why the "cargo first" narrative that dominates autonomy discussions is largely a regulatory myth.

We also dig into Reliable's new Pentagon contract to deploy autonomous cargo aircraft for contested logistics in the Indo-Pacific, what the military calls building "conveyor belts in the sky." Robert explains why military logistics actually demands commercial-grade safety in ways most people don't appreciate, how their solid-state radar technology became an unexpected multibillion-dollar opportunity for existing airlines, and what changed at the FAA after years of low morale and congressional scrutiny. It's a grounded, technically rigorous conversation about what it actually takes to certify autonomy, why operational risk assessments don't work for aircraft above a certain weight class, and how Reliable is grinding through hundreds of compliance submissions to prove that autonomy isn't some distant dream but it's ready now.